Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2000

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST CONCERN THIS PD...FRONTAL LOCATION AND TSTM
CHCS.  SFC WRMFNT SETTING UP FAR NWRN ZONES WITH STG CAP AROUND AND
A LTL BLO 700 MB SEEN ON 12Z OAX SOUNDING.  FCST 700 MB TEMPS BY
MODELS BULGE THESE WRM MID LVL TEMPS NEWD WITH ETA/AVN BRINGING +14
DEG ISOTHERM INTO NERN NEBR BY 06Z.  NGM WHICH WAS A LTL COOLER AT
00Z BECOMES AS WARM AS AVN BY 12Z WITH +16 THROUGH MUCH OF CWA.
GIVEN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND THERMAL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE IT
APPEARS ETA DRIVES SFC FNT A LTL TOO FAR SE THRU 18Z TUE.  AVN/NGM
LIKED A LTL BETTER HERE...ALTHO WITH GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS SEEN ACRS
WRN U.S...FEEL FNT MAY HAVE A LTL BETTER SUCCESS PUSHING SEWD ON 2ND
NIGHT...I.E. TUE NGT...SO OVERALL WL LEAN TWD NGM THRU 48HRS AND
THEN TWD ETA.

ALTHO MOISTURE IN SFC TO 850 MB LYR IS MODEST...QUESTION IS WHETHER
IT WL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME INCREASING WRM MID LVL TEMPS.  STLT
SHOWD WEAK/DECAYING MCV MOVG ACRS CWA THIS AFTN.  WL COUNT ON CAP
HOLDING MOST OF CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS IT MOVES THRU FCST
AREA AND NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS TIL LATE ALL BUT FAR NRN ZONES.  OTRW
LOOKING FOR CNVCTN DVLPG SERN WY/NEBR PNHDL TO MOV OR DVLP E/NE INTO
SD.  ALL THREE MODELS HAVE MAIN UPR DIVERGENT AREA ACRS SD BY 06Z
AND EXPECT MAIN MCS TO TRACK N OF CWA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION OF MESOETA WEAKENING CAP TWD NWRN CWA BY 06Z SO WL CONT
HIGHEST POPS FAR NRN ZONES.  ATTM EXPECT CAP TO HOLD SRN ZONES AND
WL DROP MENTION OF TSTMS THERE AND LOWER IN CNTRL SECTIONS.  CURRENT
LOWS LOOK GOOD.

FOR TUE...WITH FNT EXPECTED HANG UP NWRN ZONES WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY ACRS THE SE AND WL RAISE HIGHS CLOSER TO FWC
NUMBERS...FAN LOOKS TOO COOL.  WL CONT SMALL MORNING POPS CNTRL/N.

MODELS POINT TO A SIMILAR TRACK OF ANY MCS TUE NGT AS TNGT.  THOUGH
FEEL RISK MAY BE A LTL S AS HEIGHTS OVERALL COULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER...AND WL RUN HIGHER POPS CNTRL AND S TUE NGT COMPARED TO
TNGT.  THIS ALSO SHOULD ALLOW FNT TO MAKE A LTL MORE OF A SE PUSH ON
WED WITH COOLER WX FELT AS FAR SE AS OMA/LNK.  WL LEAVE FAR SE HOT.
COMP BTWN FAN/FWC NUMBERS LOOKS BEST ATTM.

.OMA...NONE.
CHERMOK

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-300900-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
804 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.  SPOTTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN THE REST OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL IOWA WILL HELP FOCUS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA.  WHILE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
ALONG WITH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE MORE FAVORED FOR SEVERE WEATHER...A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY SPREAD
EAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...PROBABLY AFTER 10 PM...
AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
FINALLY REACH SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT.

POWERS