Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
143 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT.  IN THE LONGER TERM...FOCUS SHIFTS TO TEMPS.
18Z SFC ANLYS INDICATING SFC LOW OVER CNTRL KS W OR SW OF HYS WITH
THE WMFNT BULGING NEWD INTO EXTRM SE NEB.  CLEARING TO THE S OF THE
FNT IS LEADING TO GOOD HEATING AND DESTABLIZATION OF THE AIRMASS S
OF THE FNT OVER CNTRL AND NE KS.  CURRENT LIS ARE RUNNING NEAR -4
ALG THE NEB BORDER WITH -8 FURTHER S OVER N CNTRL.NE KS.  MAX CAPE
IS AROUND 2400 J/KG OVER NE KS.

EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS ALG THE
WMFNT OVER NE KS AND INTO SE NEB.  ADDL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALG
THE DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS S OF HYS AND IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN LATEST
STLT IMAGERY.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SHIFT NEWD INTO SECTIONS OF ERN
NEB DURG THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS.  THE SE CORNER OF THE
STATE IS MOST THREATENED BY SVR TSRA WITH DCRG THREAT FURTHER N
ACROSS THE CWFA.  ALTHOUGH EXPECT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH SVR...SUFFICIENT CURVATURE IN WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOS POSSIBLE.

ON SAT...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OVER THE EXTREME E
IN TGHE MONRING...THEN SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA AS THE SHRTWV
EJECTS NEWD INTO SRN MN.  WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVS INTO WRN
SECTIONS OF NEB/KS.  THE MDL RH FIELDS INDICATE THAT CLEARING WILL
BE SLOW OVER THE CWA...LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

MAIN CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA SAT NIGHT WITH LGT WNDS.

ON SUN...SOME DISREPANCIES WITH THE MDLS ARE NOTED.  THE AVN IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE DVLPG A SFC LOW OVER SRN SD WITH A WMFNT EXTENDING SE INTO
SE NEB.  ALTHOUGH SOME RETURN FLOW IS NOTED...THE ETA AND NGM ARE
MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW DVLPMENT AND RESULTANT WAA.
WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN
LATER FCSTS.

THE 72HR AVN AND LAST NIGHTS MRF ARE IN AGREEMENT ON SFC LOW DVLPG BY
12Z MON OVER SW SD/NW NEB AS SHRTWV ENERGY MOVS ALG THE POLAR JET FM
NRN CA TO SD/NEB...THUS MEMORIDAL DAY LIKELY TO BE QUITE WARM.  THE
MRF INDICATES A CDFNT MOVG E REACHING THE CWFA LATE IN THE
DAY...THUS WILL INSERT A THREAT OF TSRA.

SKERRITT

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-270400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
458 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.  THE PRINCIPAL THREAT WILL BE FROM
AROUND COLUMBUS TO FREMONT TO HARLAN IOWA AND SOUTH TO THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDER. THE THREAT WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE
RAPIDLY TO NORTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT...FORCING A WARM FRONT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS WARM FRONT
AND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWINGING EAST THROUGH KANSAS.  THE
AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

POWERS