Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
155 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000

SEVERE WEATHER THE NEXT 10 HOURS OR SO IS THE PRIMARY FCST CONCERN.
SFC ANLYS EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWED A STRONG LOW PRES CENTER OVER NERN
CO AND THIS SHOULD MOVE ENE THROUGH TNGT.  THE TWO FNTS IN THE ERN
NE AND WRN IA AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPORTANT FOR STORM STRUCTURE
AND ORGANIZATION.  JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 110 KTS AROUND 300 MB SHOULD
MOVE OUT ACROSS KS...PUTTING OUR AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET MAX WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  HAIL...WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.  RED BOX WIBIS SHORTLY TO OUR W.

BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER NERN
NE...BUT MAY SAG FARTHER TO THE S WITH THE NRN FNT.  DRY SLOT
PUNCHES INTO SERN NE...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM THERE.

SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO SERN NE BY 12Z...AND DRY SLOT MAY SHUT DOWN
PCPN FOR A WHILE THU MORNING.  PCPN EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD OVER THE
AREA AGAIN DURING THE DAY AS THE FNT MOVES S.  EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
RECOVERY OF TEMPS ACROSS NERN NE ON THU WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN...SO
TEMPS MAY STAY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.  SERN NE AND SWRN IA
ZONES AHEAD OF FNT COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  HAVE
KEPT SOME CHANCE OF PCPN THU EVENING ACROSS SERN PART OF FCST AREA
BUT CLOUDS THU NGT WITH COOL TEMPS.  WILL MENTION SOME UPPER 30S IN
NRN PART OF NERN NE.  DRY CONDS WITH LESS WIND ON FRI.  MODELS ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE LATER PERIODS...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
DEVIATIONS FROM MOS.  FIRST DRAFT OF THE WORK ZONES WAS SENT.

.OMA...NONE
MILLER

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-181200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
508 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTERS GROUPS SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ONLY
DECREASE SLOWLY IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  A DRY LINE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL ACT AS ANOTHER FOCUS.  WARM...HUMID...AND
UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW WILL FUEL STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  A MAXIMUM IN THE JET STREAM WINDS EMERGING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO INTENSIFY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

POLLACK

IAZ090-091-NEZ068-090>093-180000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT WED MAY 17 2000

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE NO LONGER IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 299
WHICH WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON...OTOE...JOHNSON...NEMAHA...PAWNEE...
AND RICHARDSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS FREMONT
AND PAGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE COUNTIES BEFORE THE WATCH
EXPIRES AT 9 PM.  THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT SEVERE WEATHER
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

POLLACK