Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
215 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2000

...INITIAL CONCERN CONVECTION...LATER CONCERN HOW LONG TO KEEP CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION...AND TYPE...

SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT AT 1 PM EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN AINSWORTH
AND ONEILL SOUTHWEST TO MCK.  THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING
IT THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT... TO MO RIVER VALLEY BY AM.  INCREASING
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE LINES AND CLUSTERS THROUGH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. POSSIBLY A MIX IN NORTHEAST ZONES BY AM...RAIN/WET
SNOW.

LONGER TERM...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE
SCALE...WHILE THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A
MYSTERY UNTIL THEY EVOLVE.  ONE THING THAT ALL OF THE NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST IS THAT A TEMPORARY DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS IS TEMPORARY
REPLACED WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
THAT EXTENDS VERTICALLY INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER...THUS SOME PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS MOISTURE.  THOUGH
CLOUDS PERSISTS...KEEPING COLD DIURNAL RANGE DOWN...MUCH AS BOTH FWC
AND FAV SUGGEST...ANY LINGERING SNOW TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES MONDAY BEHIND FRONT...AND THERE IS AN
OLD SAYING THAT THERE IS ALWAYS A SURPRISE UNDER AN UPPER LOW.  THIS
SAYING RELATES TO THE FEATURES THAT THE MODEL CANNOT RESOLVE IN
THESE PATTERNS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY BIG SURPRISE.

EXTENDED TERM...PROBLEM SECOND UPPER LOW...WHICH SHOULD FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTH...HWVR LOOKS LIKE A RISK OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY.

COORDINATION WITH LBF AND GID AND SPC.

.OMA...NONE.
BYRD

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045
-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-060300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
500 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN RISK WOULD APPEAR TO BE WEST OF A BEATRICE
TO OMAHA TO TEKAMAH LINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MOVE
INTO EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA.  A STRONG JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WAS
CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
INITIALLY...SOME ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
SHIFT MORE TOWARD STRONG WIND AND HAIL BY MID EVENING...BEFORE
INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHES BY
LATE EVENING.

CHERMOK