Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2000

IN NEAR TERM STRONG CDFNT STRETCHING FRM SE SD INTO SW NEB MARKING
EDGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD. FNT FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY WINDS AND 3-5MB 3 HR PRES RISES. WILL FOLLOW TREND OF ETA
MODEL PLACING FNT FM NRN MO INTO NE AND W CNTRL KS BY TUE MRNG.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY INACTIVE ATTM WITH CAPPING FM WRM MID LEVEL
TEMPS...BELIEVE FNT STILL A CHC FNT COULD SET OFF TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTN AND TNGT AS IT INTERACTS WITH LWR LVL THETA E RIDGE. LAPS DATA
ATTM INDICATING RELATIVELY LOWER CIN AND TEMPS APPROACHING SFC BASED
CONVECTIVE LEVELS SE NEB.

FNT STALLS ACROSS MO AND KS TUE AND THEN STARTS TO LIFT NWD AGAIN AS
WMFNT LATE TUE AFTN THRU TUE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CLOUDINESS
AT TIMES ON TUE...BUT EXPECT MAIN RISK FOR PRECIP TO BE WRN AREAS OF
NE WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENT CONTRIBUTES. HOWEVER ON TUE NIGHT AS LWR
LVEL JET INCREASED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION OVER NWD LIFTING FNT
BELIEVE SMALL POPS FOR TSTMS WARRANTED. MAX TEMP TRENDS OF ERLYR
FCSTS FOR TUE GENLY IN LINE WITH NEW FWC AND MAV GUIDANCE. WILL RUN
RANGE FRM NEAR 80 NRN ZONES TO 80S SOUTH.

MAX TEMP ON WED MUCH HARDER CALL. AVN AND ETA PUT MOVE WMFNT N AND
PLACE MUCH OF AREA BACK INTO HOT AIR AGAIN AS LOW PRES DVLPS WRN
DKTS IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF WRN CANADA WITH NGM
TENDING TO HOLD POSITION OF WMFNT BACK SOME. BELIEVE MORE OF AN
AVERAGE BETWEEN COOLER FWC AND HOT MAV GUIDANCE BEST DIRECTION  FOR
MAX TEMPS. MESTO ETA K INDICES INDICATE MST THREAT FOR PRECIP SHUD
END BY WED MRNG. CDFNT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE THEN PUSHES ACROSS AREA
ON THU.

.OMA...NONE
WIESE

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-290500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS
EVENING.  WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.  WARM TEMPERATURES
OFF THE SURFACE COULD EITHER SUPPRESS THE ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT OR KEEP
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.  THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE.  IF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE...SEVERE STORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID EVENING.  THE AREA AT RISK IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM OMAHA TO COLUMBUS TO ALBION.

STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
...BEFORE COOLING LATER THIS EVENING REDUCES THE INSTABILITY AND THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

CHERMOK