Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2000

STAGE GETTING SET FOR LIKELY THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK OVER AREA TNGT.
LAPS AND MSAS DATA SHOWS MOIST UNSTABLE AND BEST SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM VCNTY SFC LOW S CENTRAL SD SOUTH ALONG SFC TROF
INTO WRN KS. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIN INDICATED ATTM FOR
CONVECTION ROOTED IN BNDRY LAYER.  OTHER AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FRM SFC LOW ALONG AND VCNTY OF WMFNT ACROSS SERN SD INTO
NW IA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO BE FAVORED AREA FOR DVLPMNT REST OF THE
AFTN AND THIS EVE WITH ACTIVITY THEN EVOLVING INTO CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS REST OF CWFA DURING NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TOPPING
UPPER RIDGE MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS. APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FRO SOME SVR CELSS PER SWODY1.

ON TUE NGM ONLY MODEL TO PUSH FNT THRU SE NEB AND SW IA BY EVE WITH
ETA AND AVN TENDING TO SLOW OR EVEN SLOW FNT. EVEN WITH ETA AND AVN
SOULUTION STILL APPEARS THAT NERN NEB SHOULD GET INTO MORE STABLE
AND DRIER AIR TUE AND TUE NIGHT FOR MINIMAL OR NO RISK OF TSTMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS IN AREAS TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO KEEP CHC TSTMS REST OF CWFA WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY POOLING ALONG FNT. AGAIN ON WED WITH STALLED FNT FM SRN
IA ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH WILL NEED TO ADD
AT LEAST SMALL CHC NRN AREAS AND KEEP CHC REST OF FCST AREA.

WITH DISTURBANCES COMING AROUND UPPER RIDGE...EXTENDED WILL FEATURE
A CHC OF TSTMS EACH DAY.

.OMA...NONE
WIESE

NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-251200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT.  THE AREA MOST AT RISK IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WEST OF ALBION NEBRASKA TO HARLAN IOWA...ALTHOUGH IF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO MOVE INTO THIS REGION THIS EVENING...THEY
WOULD LIKELY TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SLOW MOVING
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WERE TRACKING TOWARD VALENTINE.  IN
ADDITION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST FROM THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER.  THIS COMBINATION WAS CAUSING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.  THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OR MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT
IS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AND THESE COULD PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA UNTIL
1100 PM.

CHERMOK