Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
212 PM CST TUE FEB 29 2000

MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS ACTUALLY LATE IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND BEYOND AS
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SRN STREAM SYSTEMS WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  CURRENT SHRTWV IS MOVG ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
ATTM AND WILL BE MOVG RPDLY E OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.  FEW MINI
SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DRY SLOT OVER NE KS AND HAVE MOVED
INTO SE NE.  THIS WILL END QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING AS THE SHRTWV
MOVES EAST.  STG WFC WNDS HAVE DEVELOPED BEHIND THE SHRTWV OVER
CNTRL NE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT EAR PAST HR.  FEEL IT WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY OVER THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH...
BUT BLO WND ADV CRITERIA.  THE MDLS END THE SHRA/TSRA AND CLEAR
SKIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...SO WILL INCLUDE AN EVENING
PERIOD E CNTRL AND SE GROUPS.  PACIFIC AIRMASS MOVES SE INTO THE
REGION FOR WED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.

A SERIES OF STRONG SRN STREAM SHRTWVS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...MAINLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF NE OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING
LATE THURS AND CONT INTO EARLY FRI.  NEW AVN IS A LITTLE FARTHER S
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN LAST NIGHTS MRF...BUT THE CWA IS STILL
THREATENED.  TIMING WOULD SUGGEST THAT PCPN WOULD ENTER FROM SW TO
NE BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY THURS AND CONTG INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES FROM THE AVN SUGGEST THAT PCPN MAY BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW AND SINCE BULK OF THE PCPN SEEMS TIMED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION MUCH MORE LIKELY GIVEN TIME OF DAY WHICH
IS BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THE EVER
STRENGTHENING LATE WINTER SUN.

WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR THURS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE THE NE SECTIONS DRY FOR NOW.

FWC GUID TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE TNGT THRU WED NIGHT.  WITH INCRG
CLDS AND A THREAT OF LATE DAY PCPN THURS...TEMPS MAY BE A BUT HIGH
AND WL LOWER A CAT.

WILL INCLUDE A THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED TO COVER THE
PCPN THREAT.

.OMA...NONE

SKERRITT

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-010200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CST TUE FEB 29 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTER SPOTTER GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA AND
COUNCIL BLUFFS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON...THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONGER.

THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE MODERATE SIZE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

THE THREAT OF SE VERE WEATHER SHOULD END BY 7 OR 8 PM THIS EVENING.

MILLER/CHERMOK