Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
240 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2000

TSTMS...WITH THREAT OF SVR WX AND HEAVY RAIN...ARE THE PRIMARY FCST
CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  SFC ANLYS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWED A WARM FNT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OVER CO ALONG THE NE/KS
BORDER AND INTO NRN MO.  FNT APPEARED TO BE N OF FNB AND BIE IN THE
FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA.  ANOTHER FNT...PROBABLY NEAR THE
850 MB LEVEL...SEEMED TO EXTEND FROM SERN IA INTO SERN SD.  WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR NRN PART OF THE AREA FOR PSBL CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT
EARLY THIS MORNING.  SFC DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
OVER MOST OF NEBRASKA.  CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE DKTS AND MN WAS
DROPPING ESE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS WAS MOVING S...AND MAY
INTERACT WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD FROM THE NE PNHDL.  THOSE STORMS
SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SPEED MAX AROUND 250 MB...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE.  THE ETA...NGM AND MM5 FROM NCAR ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR TODAY.  STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER NCNTRL NE...THEN MOVE/PROPAGATE E OR ESE
INTO ERN NE.  CAP AT 700 MB WAS QUITE STRONG LAST EVENING...BUT
MODELS SHOW THAT MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD COOL DURING THE DAY.  HIGHS
ON TUE WERE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.  WILL FCST MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE KS BORDER.

TNGT...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NERN NE...BUT LINGER
OVER THE S.  HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WAS MAINLY OVER THE SRN PART OF SERN NE.  WILL NOT ISSUE
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NERN NE FOR TODAY SINCE IT HAS BEEN A
WHILE SINCE HEAVY RAIN FELL THERE.  A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SERN NE TNGT.  LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TNGT.  HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF TODAY.  WILL LOOK AT THE NEW MRF...BUT IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO
MAKE THINGS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR OVER A WEEK NOW.  THE
ECMWF AND UKMO ARE SIMILAR IN BUILDING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
MID PART OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT HAPPENING IS NOT HIGH.  FIRST DRAFT OF THE WORK ZONES WAS
JUST SENT.

.OMA...NONE.
MILLER

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-051800-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
OVER THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...
AND A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS LIFTING NORTH.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD OR MOVE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOWARD EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE TODAY...AND THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.  THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM SEWARD TO WEST POINT AND ONAWA IOWA APPEARS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING...IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF NEBRASKA.

MILLER

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-052300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1005 AM CDT WED JUL 5 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINED IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...
AND A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WAS LIFTING NORTH.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AND THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCAL
FLOODING...IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF NEBRASKUA IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING KANSAS.

GW