Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2000

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FORECASTING THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR SE NEBRASKA AND SW 4 COUNTIES OF IOWA TONIGHT.

IN THE SHORT TERM... ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE GATHERING FOR A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT ACROSS SRN NEB AND SW IA AS A TROUGH REMAINS STALLED NEAR
THE NE KS BORDER...REINFORECED BY LEFTOVER SC FIELD PRODUCING LOWER
TEMPS TO THE NORTHEAST.  VERY HIGH CAPES WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND AN
APPROACHING MCV IN NWRN KS ALL POINT TO STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LATE AFTN AND EVE.  PWS ARE ALSO VERY HIGH IN THE AIRMASS JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT
STORMS WILL MOVE A BIT SOUTH THIS EVE THEN TEND TO STALL.  ETA TRIES
TO PULL THE BOUNDARY NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH TSTMS CATCHING THE
INFLOW OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR...THIS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT.
AS PER COORD WITH HPC...THE NGM MAY BE DOING A BETTER JOB IN KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY STALLED WITH COPIOUS PRECIP JUST TO THE NORTH.  THE
ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW.  RAINFALL
COULD EASILY EXCEED 3 HR FFG IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  WILL LEAVE
OMA AND NWD OUT OF THE WATCH BECAUSE THESE AREAS LIE DEEPER IN
STABLE AIR.

WRN PLAINS SHRTWV IS LIKELY TO INDUCE ANOTHER MCS THIS EVE...WHICH
IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST AND MAY ROLL UP ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG
BNDRY LATER TONIGHT...GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA A DECENT CHC OF TSTMS.
EXPECT MOVEMENT TO BE ENOUGH FOR A LOWER FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES.  THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO TUE.

DID NOT SPEND AS MUCH TIME ON THE LATER PDS.  BOTH ETA AND AVN
HAVE HAD TOO MUCH TENDENCY TO BUILD UP HEIGHTS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID LEVELS...SUPPRESSING TSTMS AND RAISING TEMPS TOO FAST.  SINCE
THIS IS AGAIN THE TREND OF THESE MODELS...IT IS HARD TO PUT A LOT
OF FAITH IN THEM.  HOWEVER...EVEN THE NGM SHOWS A TENDENCY TOWARD
RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES.

TUESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF LEFTOVER MORNING
CONVECTION AND THEN A SWD SAGGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...CLOSEST TO NGM
DEPICTION.  MORE TSTMS COULD FIRE IN WRN NEB TROUGH LATER IN THE DAY
THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN IN THE EVE OR OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE IN THE NORTH AS BOUNDARY FINALLY TENDS TO LIFT OUT.

WILL TRY A WARMER AND NO PCPN SCENARIO FOR WED ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTUE WILL STILL LINGER...KEEPING SOMETHING OF A LID ON TEMPS
BUT NOT HUMIDITY.  WILL SEE IF WARMER TEMPS ALOFT BY THEN ACTUALLY
VERIFY.

.OMA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
       A LINE FROM SEWARD NEBRASKA TO RED OAK IOWA.

POLLACK

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-040930-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED  TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES TO BE FED INTO THE AREA.  A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT.  THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY DAMAGING
WINDS.  IT MAY ALSO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA FROM
AROUND SEWARD NEBRASKA EAST TO AROUND RED OAK IOWA AND SOUTH TO THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.

OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.  THESE MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS BUT ARE UNLIKELY
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

POWERS