Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1026 AM EST THU NOV 9 2000

NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING.  SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR PADUCAH
WITH THE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN MS.  PREFRONTAL TROUGH KICKING OFF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STAYING SOUTH WHERE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS.
06Z MESOETA VERIFYING WELL WITH FEATURES.  SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  GRADIENT INCREASES WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY.  PROBABLY SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT NEARS.  H5 TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IN A FAVORABLE QUAD WITH DEEP MOISTURE
IN THE AREA.  HAVE GOOD DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT...
BUT DONT THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TIME TO RECOVER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED.  COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.  NOT MUCH OF A WARM UP TODAY
WITH THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1128 AM EST THU NOV 9 2000

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ...COUNTY LOCATION....

140 AM     COUNTYWIDE                TN   WIND DAMAGE
11/09/00   MARION                         REPORTED BY SHERIFF'S OFFICE
                                          SEVERAL TREES DOWNED
                                          ACROSS THE COUNTY.

230 AM     COUNTYWIDE                     WIND DAMAGE
11/09/00   MARION                         REPORTED BY SHERIFF'S OFFICE
                                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED
                                          ACROSS THE COUNTY
                                          BETWEEN 220-240 AM EST
                                          (120-140 AM CST).

240 AM     KIMBALL                        WIND DAMAGE
11/09/00   MARION                         REPORTED BY DISPATCH
                                          A TELEPHONE POLE,
                                          TELEPHONE LINES AND
                                          CABLE LINES DOWNED ON
                                          SPEERS ROAD.

END/FERRELL

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-100000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1143 AM EST THU NOV 9 2000

...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL GET CLOSER TO REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING. A LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED IN
MID TENNESSEE BEFORE NOON NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND THIS LINE IS
EXPECTED TO MARCH NEAR OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE
BY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALSO...VERY STRONG WINDS AT A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP MAY
GENERATE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY
EAST...SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DM

TNZ081>084-098>100-092200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1225 PM EST (1125 AM CST) THU NOV 9 2000

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE UNTIL 4 PM CST
(5 PM EST)...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
THROUGH 4 PM CST (5 PM EST).  THE WATCH COVERS MARION...BLEDSOE...
SEQUATCHIE...HAMILTON...RHEA...MEIGS...AND BRADLEY COUNTIES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD EAST TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WATCH
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

THE WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BECOME TORNADIC.  STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS THE MAIN INGREDIENT.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE DAMAGING WINDS.

PLEASE KEEP YOURSELF INFORMED THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT THIS DEVELOPING
AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER XSITUATION.  STAY TUNED TO LOCAL OR
CABLE RADIO OR TV STATIONS...OR USE YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...THE
VOICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SP