Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
858 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS MCS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST
VIRGINIA MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH.  MESOETA THICKNESS AND TEMPERATURE
PATTERN INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 03Z AND CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE REMAINING MAINLY TO THE WEST
APPALACHIANS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE...HOWEVER WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO CATEGORICAL IN
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND DROP TO HIGH CHANCE
VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.

WILL INSERT WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH THESE STORMS AS LI S CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE -8 RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING HOWEVER STILL QUITE WARM IN THE VALLEY SO STILL
QUITE UNSGTABLE.

TEMPERATURES APPEAR WITHIN REASON SO WILL NOT UPDATE.

HW

TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-101000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
938 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AFTER MIDNIGHT...

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...THE NORTHEAST CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GET INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE SMOKIES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...AND WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE
LEADING LINE OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA (THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA) SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS HANDLING THE WEATHER
SITUATION BEST...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO GET INTO THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SMOKIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 70 MPH AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY? MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS LATE THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ANY FURTHER
STATEMENTS.

DM