Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
210 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2000

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
EASTERN TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHED THROUGH
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLIER THIS EVENING AND IS NOW
WEAKENED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. WATCH BOXES OUT EARLIER THIS EVENING
ARE NOW EXPIRED. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS.
RADAR AND IR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING...LIKELY DUE TO
DIMINISHING DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...RECENT GOES SOUNDING FROM NEW
ORLEANS SHOWS CAPES AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY SFC WINDS
APPEAR TO BE BACKING AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN LOW LEVELS. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CELLS WITHIN
THIS LINE ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYBREAK. UPPER JET DYNAMICS ALSO A
PLAYER AS DIVERGENCE ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING TO COME IN PHASE
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTIONS.

ETA AND AVN IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SHOWING MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND MIDDAY FOR MOBILE WITH MAXIMUM OMEGA VALUES JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED POPS FOR SAT AS FRONT MOVES
ACROSS AREA. SHOULD SEE FRONT THROUGH EASTERN CWA BY MID AFTERNOON.
RAPID COOLING AND GRADUAL CLEARING TO FOLLOW.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MID LEVELS. NEXT
SHOT AT ANY POPS MAY BE LATE TUE OR WED WHEN AVN/MRF SHOWS WEAK
DISTURBANCE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY WITH TAILING FRONT.

MARINE: EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT DUE TO MODERATE
NWLY FLOW WILL FOLLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

/13

MOB CU 070/040 061/043 068 13400
PNS TU 073/044 063/044 067 13500
DTS TU 072/045 064/045 067 13510
GZH TU 067/038 059/034 066 13600
2R0 EU 062/034 061/036 066 13400
61A EU 065/036 060/035 066 13400

.MOB...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY PQL-PNS AND OUT 60 NM INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY PNS-DTS AND OUT 60 NM.
MS...NONE.

ALZ039-051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS OF THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. GULF WINDS WILL BRING IN MOIST AIR RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM
MOBILE TO MONROEVILLE TO CAMDEN.  LARGE HAIL...STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER
DEVELOPMENTS AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  STORM ACTIVITY WILL ABATE BY THIS EVENING.

THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A FIRE ALERT FOR MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES.  THE FIRE ALERT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTILr
LIFTED BY THE FORESTRY COMMISSION.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.NWSMOBILE.NOAA.GOV OR WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB