Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2000

MID LEVEL S/W COMBINED WITH THE LEFT QUAD OF A 60-70KT UPPER LEVEL
JET NOSING OVER MOST OF SOUTH MS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA HAS GIVEN WAY TO A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS PREFERABLY A BLEND OF
THE ETA AND NGM CONTINUES TO SHOW EXISTING LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
CUTOFF AND SHIFT W OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH THU. TO
THE N BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH SLOWLY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH WED REACHING THE COAST AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY FROM E TO W POSSIBLY BY EARLY THU MORNING. AS A RESULT WARM
MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A SHALLOW COOL LAYER DURING THE
DAY ON WED GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS. WITH CONTINUED FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE E WED AND VORT
LOBES SPIRALING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. CURRENTLY...MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE W AND
BUILD OVER THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRI. AS A RESULT CONTINUED FLOW FROM
THE E THEN SE BY LATE THU WILL GIVE WAY TO AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  BELIEVE BY THU A BETTER SE FLOW AND A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS BEGINNING NEAR THE COAST MOVING N'WARD FRI AND SAT.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS COOLER AIR
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT FWC TEMPS.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NE TO E FLOW THROUGH WED BECOMING E TO SE
GRADUALLY THU AND FRI. WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES
DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL GRADIENT SETTING UP FROM N TO S DUE TO THE
COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE N. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU.

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MOB EE 070/085 071/086 070 32365
PNS EE 072/086 072/086 072 32365
DTS EE 075/085 075/086 074 32365
GZH EW 070/085 068/086 067 32375
2R0 EW 069/086 069/087 068 32375
61A EW 070/085 069/086 067 32375

MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ALZ039-051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL...UPDATED...
200 PM CDT TUE SEP 05 2000

AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
MOST PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 800 PM CDT.  WIND GUSTS TO
40 TO 50 MPH WITH SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

ISOLATED CASES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND MOST OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ACTIVATION OF OEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND
SEVERE STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB