Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
303 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2000

ACTIVE SHEAR ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE EASTERLIES AND
THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.  REMAINS OF THE MCS WHICH TRACKED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY HAS NOW MOVED WELL INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF.  NEXT UPSTREAM FEATURES TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY WILL
BE THE SMALL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA
BORDER WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEAKENING MCC CURRENTLY
OVER WEST VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA.  THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
MCC IS SEEN CURRENTLY FROM CSJ TO AVL TO SOP HEADING SOUTH NEAR 25
KNOTS.  EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THESE FEATURES WILL
OCCUR FIRST OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY.  WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE NEAR 2 INCHES...OR ABOUT 125 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  THE TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO WARM UP
SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
WEST/SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN FOR LINGERING ISOLATED ACTIVITY.  THE EASTERN U.S. H5 TROF
WILL SHARPEN AND DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LARGE H5 RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.  AS A RESULT A SURFACE FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD TO LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY 00Z SATURDAY WHILE
THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.  CONSIDERING THIS AND FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...
WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE MARINE AREA...VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.  SEAS REMAIN NEAR 2 FEET.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMA WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE WATCH AND RED FLAG CRITERIA.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MOB EB 094/073 094/071 092 29624
PNS EB 094/076 094/073 092 29624
DTS EB 092/077 091/075 091 29624
GZH EB 094/073 096/069 093 29624
2R0 EB 097/073 097/066 090 29524
61A EB 097/073 097/066 090 29524

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.