Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2000

DEEPER MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO FIRE
EARLIER WITHIN MOIST/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SW STEERING FLOW...
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN INTERIOR CWA AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN HALF OF COASTAL COUNTIES. INLAND STORMS AND
OUTFLOWS WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM INDIAN RIVER NORTH...LEADING
TO SOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING NORTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH LESSER COVERAGE SOUTH AND FAVORING
INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY...SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE US WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...LESSENING NOTURNAL GULF CONVECTION AND THUS
PRODUCTION OF EARLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY...CAUSING SLOWER INLAND MOTION OF EAST AND WEST COAST
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. HAVE REJECTED NGM DEPICTION OF DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING UP THE PENINSULA. BELIEVE DRY AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY
OFFSHORE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD NORTH FROM CARRIBEAN. DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE COUNTY
SPECIFIC POP DISTRIBUTION GIVEN FLOW REGIME AND SIMILAR MOISTURE
LEVELS...AND WILL USE MID RANGE SCATTERED COVERAGE ALL AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN EARLY AFTERNOON AND NOT LINGER AS LONG INTO
THE EVENING AS RECENT FEW NIGHTS.

THURSDAY...STEERING FLOW SHOULD VEER BACK TO SW COMPONENT AND WEAKEN
SOME AS UPPER ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE BAHAMAS. WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE LIKELY IN PLACE BY THIS TIME...WILL INCREASE POPS TO GOOD
CHANCE RANGE. AGAIN WILL INDICATE COVERAGES GREATER THAN DRY NGM
MOS.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CENTER OF NORTHEAST US
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF. AS DISCUSSED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...STRONG GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE NW ATLANTIC...WITH
STRENGTH OF FLOW REMAINING QUESTIONABLE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS.
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY WORK DOWN THE PENINSULA FRIDAY WITH
SOME DRYING POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL NOT COMMIT TO SIGNIFICANT
DRYING AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER BREEZY NE FLOW SHOULD SHIFT BRUNT OF
DIURNAL ACTIVITY INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING IN THE SHORT
TERM. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BY EARLY IN THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD...WITH BUILDING SWELLS DUE TO LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC FETCH.

COORDINATED WITH JAX.

DAB BB 073/090 074/089 075 4435
MCPO BB 074/092 075/091 075 4435
MLB BB 074/089 077/088 076 4435

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE WX...PENDERGRAST

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-052100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1143 AM EDT TUE SEP 5 2000

...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES OVER THE PENINSULA WILL HELP FOCUS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INTERIOR
AREAS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST IN
VOLUSIA...BREVARD...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BECOME
MOST NUMEROUS AND INTENSE AFTER 4 PM...AND WILL LINGER WELL INTO
THE EVENING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35
MPH WILL ACCOMPANY MANY OF THE STORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO COCOA BEACH. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH BY EARLY EVENING...SO MOVE INDOORS AT THE
FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY COASTLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF SEVERE WEATHER
BECOMES IMMINENT OF IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTqLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

SPRATT