Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2000

NOT OFTEN WILL YOU SEE THE CU FIELD STRUGGLING WITH L90S TEMPS AND
U70S DEWPOINTS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEING SUPPRESSED BY SUBSIDENCE
NORTH OF THE H50 VORT LOBE...ANALYZED BY THE RUC ACROSS SOUTH FL.
THIS IS MAKING FOR AN OPPRESSIVELY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOON. 15Z KXMR
RAOB HAD 2.10" OF PWAT & H50 TEMP OF -6C. SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL
MOTION MUST BE DOWNWARD TO SOME EXTENT AND WEAK (MOIST ADIABATIC)
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE ECSB BEING OVERWHELMED BY LOW LEVEL WSW
FLOW PLAYING A ROLE AS WELL. BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNWARD UVM
WANES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP UP
AND LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...GIVEN ALL THE UNUSED CAPE
THAT WILL BE OUT THERE. I STILL THINK THERE MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE AS WELL.

AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE CONVG
INVOF THE TROUGH...THERE STANDS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS...
PERHAPS NOT TO THE EXTENT WHERE IT WOULD MERIT MENTION IN THE ZFP.

SAT/SAT NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE TIMING/EXTENT
OF SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE NE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS TIME AROUND
THE ETA IS THE DRIEST...THE NGM MORE MOIST WITH THE AVN A COMPROMISE.
ALSO...ANOTHER VORT LOBE SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PLACING
ECFL ON ITS SUBSIDENT SIDE BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL MODEL CONTINUITY
HAS NOT BEEN THE BEST LATELY...AND ALTHOUGH AIR MASS MAY NOT DRY OUT
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE ETA INDICATES...H50 PATTERN DICTATES POP
TREND OF LOW SCATTERED NORTH TO HIGHER SCATTERED SOUTH.

SUNDAY...AVN WINDS UP BEING THE 'MOISTEST' OF THE BIG THREE BY 12Z
SUN...AND THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...SHOWING PWATS
UNIFORMLY 0.4 TO 0.7 HIGHER THAN THE ETA. NGM IS IN BETWEEN. UNTIL
MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL GO IN BETWEEN AND KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE (20) POPS FOR INTERIOR VOLUSIA AND THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
CHANCE (30-40) FOR THE INTERIOR/SOUTH.

MON-WED...WINDS QUICKLY BRIDGE FRONT AND WASH OUT THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTH FL. E-W RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER FL/ADJACENT ATLC
THROUGH MID WEEK AS POPS PUSH BACK TOWARDS CLIMO. BEST CHANCES
INLAND MON/TUE...INCREASING ALONG THE COAST WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MARINE...TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO BE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE. AVN A
LITTLE SLOWER EARLY ON (TONIGHT) ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE ETA
MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. PREFER THE SLOWER NGM/AVN WHICH ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN SLOWING DOWN THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT.

PRELIM CCF NUMBERS...
DAB BB 076/088 074/088 073 3321
MCO TB 076/092 075/092 074 3423
MLB TB 076/091 075/089 074 3432 60

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WX...KELLY

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-071830-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 7 2000

...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE COMBINATION OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING NORTH FLORIDA
...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY
FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER STORM COVERAGE OVER VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD
COUNTIES. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...STORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY
NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS ALONG WIT$H FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. VESSEL OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS
AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR BEFORE ANY STORMS APPROACH YOUR
AREA.

CRISTALDI