Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1240 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000

WILL TRY TO MAKE THIS SOMEWHAT QUICK SINCE I ANTICIPATE A BUSY
AFTERNOON AND WE ARE WITHOUT RADAR.

SUN/MON...THROUGH 48 HOURS THE H50 SHEAR AXIS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
THE ATLC RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY WORK IT'S WAY TO THE NORTH...PUTTING THE CWA IN LIGHT SE
FLOW. MODELS ALSO WANT TO ADVECT DRIER AIR CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. NGM
CONTINUES WITH ITS DRY BIAS. ETA IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DRYING TREND THAN THE AVN. OVERALL SCENARIO WILL SHIFT BEST POPS
WESTWARD WITH TIME. FOR SUNDAY...WILL KEEP INTERIOR/NORTH WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS WITH SCT ALONG THE COAST...THEN GO HIGHER SCATTERED OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH SCT-WDLY SCT ALONG THE COAST. ESSENTIALLY WILL
DROP POPS ABOUT 10% EACH DAY...CLOSER TO HIGHER FAN GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED...LITTLE CHANGE TO PATTERN. RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA...PERHAPS SAGGING A LITTLE SOUTH BY THU. MRH WILL STAY
BETWEEN 50 AND 60%. WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH AS THEY ARE...WITH
LOW SCATTERED (@30) OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES (@40-50) INLAND.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS REASONING. SE FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE
WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.

THANKS TBW/JAX/MIA FOR WATCHING OUR BACK.

.MLB...NONE.

PRELIM CCF...
DAB TB 071/088 071/087 070 3524
MCO TB 071/091 071/091 070 3524
MLB TB 072/088 072/088 071 3413 60=

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-241800-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOODING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE...

LIGHTNING STORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE EAST COAST BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INLAND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
NUMEROUS OTHER BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING THE WEST COAST BREEZE...WILL
INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOVEMENT OF ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS
WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO FOUR TO FIVE INCHES IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SOME ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLY SOME
HOMES. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL.

AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER...MOVE INDOORS. LIGHTNING
IS FLORIDAS NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. IT CAN STRIKE MILES
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN OF A THUNDERSTORM. A SURFER IN BREVARD COUNTY
WAS STRUCK AND SERIOUSLY INJURED BY LIGHTNING YESTERDAY.

CRISTALDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...LATE REPORTS FROM FRIDAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
133 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    MELBOURNE                 FL   .75 INCH HAIL
06/23/00   BREVARD                        DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR
                                          WASHINGTON AVE. AND
                                          GARFIELD ST. PUBLIC
                                          REPORT.

0245 PM    MELBOURNE                 FL   WIND DAMAGE
06/23/00   BREVARD                        3 LARGE TREES DOWN...ONE
                                          ON A CAR. ALSO...A CARPORT
                                          WAS DESTROYED. DAMAGE
                                          OCCURRED NEAR WHERE THE HAIL
                                          WAS REPORTED.

CRISTALDI

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-242000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...

LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS BREVARD...EAST ORANGE...AND EAST OSCEOLA
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL REGIONS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.  A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH...WHICH WILL ALLOW
THEM TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  ISOLATED SPOTS EAST OF ORLANDO
AND HOLOPAW MAY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN. MINOR
FLOODING AND PONDING WATER WILL OCCUR IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER...MOVE INDOORS. LIGHTNING
IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA AND CAN STRIKE
MANY MILES AWAY FROM A STORM CENTER.

BRAGAW