Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2000

FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON MORNING FOG...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN
MINNESOTA WHICH WAS NOT PICKED UP BY MOST MODELS...AND INTERESTING
AVN STORM COMPLEX FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA/NGM PROGS MISSING EASTERN MINNESOTA
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHILE AVN CATCHES SOME OF IT ALBEIT A BIT TO THE
WEST. RUC MODEL HOWEVER PICKS THIS FEATURE UP AND SPREADS LARGEST
AREA OF RAIN OVER MOST OF CWA BY 18Z AS OPPOSED TO OTHER PROGS. AVN A
CLOSE SECOND AS IT BEGINS TO GENERATE MORE CONVECTION ALONG COOL
FRONT THAN DOES ETA/NGM. CURRENT PRECIPITATION COINCIDES WELL WITH
RUC 500 KILO PASCAL VORTICITY PATTERN AND COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITION. WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH CWA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70...AND AIRMASS ALREADY MORE
UNSTABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS LIFTED INDICES JUST NOW BARELY ABOVE
ZERO AND PROGGED TO DESTABILIZE TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 BY 00Z. 300 KILO
PASCAL 70+ JET AS SHOWN AT 00Z OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO HELP
MOVE COMPLEX ALONG AT A GOOD CLIP. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ON THE
FENCE WHETHER OR NOT TO MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES AS
COMPLEX WILL BE ARRIVING NEAR MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. FEEL AT THE
MOMENT THAT EASTERN CWA MORE FAVORED AREA FOR ARRIVAL OF MOST ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS SO WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES. 06Z
MESOETA ALSO MISSING EASTERN MINNESOTA AND RESULTS IN DRY 48 HOURS
OVER CWA. WILL WAIT TIL LAST MINUTE TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY AREAS
OVER CWA NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

IN THE FAR TERM...WILL PUT SOME MENTION OF EVENING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS COMPLEX EXITS AREA EARLY TONIGHT. OTRW PROGS BUILD
WEAK HIGH AT SURFACE AND 850 KILO PASCALS WITH HINT OF DRYING OF
AIRMASS IN LOWER LAYERS. PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TAKING SHAPE OVER IOWA MONDAY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY IN OVER
CWA.

IN THE FAR FAR TERM...AVN PROG DEPICTING A COMPACT BUT VERY POWERFUL
STORM SYSTEM CROSSING STATE MONDAY NIGHT. 500 KILO PASCAL VORTICITY
INCREASES FROM 28 UNITS AT 06Z/TUE TO 45 UNITS BY 12Z/TUE AS IT
SWEEPS FROM LACROSSE TO MANITOWOC. 6 HOUR PRECIPITATION PLACE 3+
INCH BULLSEYE OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z TUE. AT FIRST BLUSH
THIS APPEARS TO WAY OVERDONE...BUT ETA 60 HOUR DOES AGREE TO BRING
A SOLID PIECE OF ENERGY IN UPPER WESTERLY FLOW AT THE 60 HOUR MARK.

.UWNMS...ONLY PROG TO HINT AT PRECIPITATION NEAR MINNESOTA COMPLEX...
BUT ALSO GENERATING PRECIPITATION ALONG WARM FRONT. OVERALL CLOSER
TO AVN MODEL IN DEPICTING PRECIPITATION OVER CWA ALONG FRONT THROUGH
EVENING.

.MKX...NONE.
ZAJDEL