Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

ACTIVE WX EXPECTED ACRS RGN THRU MEMORIAL DAY. MAIN FOCUS WL BE
E/W FRNTL BNDRY CRNTLY TO N AND AN APPROACHING STRG UPR TRF. ETA/NGM
FAIRLY SIMILAR AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN AVN AND WL LIKELY FOLLOW
THEM. APPEARS ERN NC WILL SEE TWO MAIN BATCHES OF CNVCTN. FIRST WL BE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO NW ACRS MTNS TO
REDVLP ACRS VA LTR THIS AFTN AS ATMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE. DECENT
VORT ALSO EXPECT TO ENHANCE LIFT ACRS THIS RGN. THIS CONVECTION SHLD
THEN MOVE ESE ALONG UPR THICKNESS LINES AND CROSS MAINLY NRN
SECTIONS. CERTAINLY WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SEVERE AS VERY UNSTABLE AIR
IS DEVELOPING ACRS SRN NC AND S CAROLINA AND THIS AIRMASS WL CONT TO
LIFT N...S OF THE FRNT. PLAN ON GOING WITH LIKELY POPS FAR N TO CHC
S. THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION SHLD MOVE OFFSHR LTR TONIGHT. SFC WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTVTY WL LIKELY DRAG FRNTL BNDRY S INTO NRN OR
CNTRL SECTION OVERNIGHT.

STRG UPR TRF WL BEGIN TO SPREAD GOOD UVM ACRS RGN DURING SUNDAY.
WITH NICE THERMAL BNDRY LYING ACRS RGN EXPECT STRG TO SEVERE THUNDER
TO DEVELOP DURING AFTN. IF WE GET ENUF HEATING WORRIED COULD SEE
SOME DECENT SUPERCELLS AS SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG FRNT AND INCREASES
HELICITY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS AND CONT TO WORD MAINLY
AFTN OR LATE. AS UPR TRF AND COLD POOL CROSS RGN SUN NIGHT INTO MON
WL CONT TO SEE THREAT OF SHRA POSS TSRA. TEMPS VERY MILD TONIGHT S OF
WRM FRNT. HIGHS SUNDAY VERY TRICKY. WL GO 85 TO 90 S IN WARM SECTOR
WITH 75 TO 80 FAR N. ALL AREAS WL BE COOLER MON AS SFC LOW MVS E AND
NRLY WINDS DVLP OVER AREA.

CWF: TUFF FCST AS MDLS SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. LOOKS LIKE NRN WTRS
AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WL SEE THE LIGHTEST WINDS THRU SUN WITH FRNTL
POSITION CLOSE. S OF HAT AM LEANING TWRD POSTING SCA TNGHT AS SFC
WAVE WL INCRS SW WINDS. WL SEE A BIT OF A LULL EARLY SUN BUT AS
SECOND LOW DVLPS INLAND SUN AFTN DECENT SW WINDS LIKELY AGAIN S OF
HAT. FOR NOW WL BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN AVN AND MOVE SFC
LOW FRTHR OFFSHR SUN NIGHT AND MON...THIS MAY INCRS WINDS TO SCA LVLS
NRN WTRS MON.

.MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS S OF CAPE HAT.

FREDERICK