Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
236 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2000

...NORTHERN COUNTIES TO SEE MORE BENEFICIAL RAINS...BUT HOW ABOUT THE
SOUTH?...

THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INITIALIZED THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WELL. THEY ALSO ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
INDICATING AN ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS ESTRN NC. ALL THE MODELS BRING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STNRY FRONT BISECTING NC ATTM. NOT MUCH HAPPENING YET AS CLOUDS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE TEMPS FROM BEING REACHED. SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION FORM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS MSAS INDICATING LI'S NR -7
IN VCNTY OF FRONT.

MODELS BRING BEST LIFT/MOIST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. ALL
AGREE THAT THE NRN TIER WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE
AVN THE FURTHEST N AND THE ETA A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS HERE ON
THE SE COAST. YSTDY THE AVN WAS BEST ON THE TIMING OF THE EVENING
MCS AND ITS'S OMEGA FIELD TONIGHT IS SUPPORTED BY A DIFL MAXIMA ON
THE 12Z ETA. THUS WILL GO LIKELY (60%) POPS FOR THE NRN COUNTIES AND
40 FOR MHX-NCA WHERE THE AVN SHOWS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SIG PCPN.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS/INSTAB TO SEE SOME
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST. MID LVL FLOW AND UPPER SUPPORT WARRANT
SLGT RISK PER LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

THE SFC WAVE IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE ERLY MON TAKING THE DEEPEST RH
AND BEST LIFT WITH IT UP THE COAST. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BNDRY WILL
BE LOCATED OVR ESTRN NC DURING MAX HEATING. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...COOLING TEMPS AT 500 MB WILL PRODUCE GOOD INSATB ACROSS OUR
AREA. DRY MID LEVELS WILL AID SVR DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH LIFT
PERHAPS ENHANCED WITH INTERACTION WITH THE RESULTANT BREEZE. THINK
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30% REGION WIDE.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVR THE ESTRN US WILL SHIFT E ON TUE PUTTING
NC IN A NW FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK VORT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. AVN RH
FIELDS APPROACH 70% AND DECENT WAA WILL OCCUR...PRODUCING ENOUGH
LIFT TO BRING A THREAT (30%) OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA. FAN/FWC TEMPS
IN AGREEMENT AND ACCEPTED.

CWF: THE AVN WAS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SFC WAVE TONIGHT-MON AND
LOOKED OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE ETA/NGM WHICH HAD SIMILAR DYNAMICS.
AFTER COORD WITH ILM...I WILL INCREASE WINDS TO JUST BELOW SCA
LEVELS FOR THE SRN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MON. LATER SHIFTS MAY
HAVE TO INCREASE TO 25 KT.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-212200-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1118 AM EDT SUN MAY 21 2000

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A WEAK EAST TO WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON IS WARM AND UNSTABLE...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES...AND OTHER EMERGENCY
PERSONNEL SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING
THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

JME/RSB