Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
229 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000

TDY...ATMOS IS IN THE PROCESS OF CHANGING BIG TIME  WEDGE IS BEING
ERODED AS SHRTWV ENERGY APPROACHES...SHRTWV PRODUCING STRNG UVM AND
STRNG LO LVL WND FIELDS AND THIS IS ERODING WEDGE IN A HURRY.
TEMPS/DWPTS ACRS MHX CWA ARE ON THE RISE AND THIS SHLD CONT THRU 12Z.
06Z SFC ANAL INDICATED INTENSE PRES FALLS ACRS SC WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRNG UVM...THIS IS WHERE GD SHWRS/TSTMS ARE HEADED AT THE
MOMENT. THESE PRES FALLS AND GD LIFT WILL BE OVR CSTL PLN AND SW
SECTIONS OF MHX CWA LTR ON WITH SHWRS/TSTMS INCNRG. CURRENT SITUATION
WORRIES ME A BIT FOR PSBL SVR WX...WHAT IS TROUBLING IS THAT THERE
STILL MAY BE A BIT OF WEDGE LEFT OVR SRN SECTIONS OF RDUS CWA WHEN
GOOD LIFT GETS HERE. THIS BNDRY OR TMB WILL HAV ENHANCED HELICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ADDING TO WHAT IS ALRDY PRESENT  JUST E OF
BNDRY ACRS MHX CWA ATMOS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AS TEMPS BY THEN WILL
BE 60ISH WITH DWPTS ALSO NR 60. INTERACTION WITH PSBL TMB AND WITH
SUCH STRNG WND FIELDS IN LO LVLS IS A POTENTIAL PROB FOR MHX CWA. WL
MONITOR  FOR THE ZONES TDY...WILL JUST CALL IT SHWRS AND TSTMS.
LUKS LIKE WE WILL GET A SHOT THIS MORNING...THEN SCT TSTMS LTR ON AS
YET MORE SHRTWV ENERGY APPROACHES FRM THE SW BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. IF
ATMOS CAN RECOVER LTR THIS AFT...THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT STORMS
AS NEXT SHRTWV IS PRETTY STRNG AND TEMPS ALFT WILL BE COLDER AND
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER. TEMPS MILD TDY WITH GUSTY S/SW WNDS ALL
ZONES.  TNT...AFTER EVE THREAT OF WDLY SCT TSTMS...THINGS CALM DOWN
OVN AS DRY AIR PUSHES ACRS REG FOLLOWING FROPA. TEMPS COOL TO THE LWR
40S OR SO WITH WNDS SHFTNG TO NW. TUE...A BTR DAY WITH DRY AIRMASS
AND DNSLOPE LO LVL TRAJS. A GD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS COOLER BUT
STILL NOT TOO BAD WITH 55 TO 60ISH MOST AREAS.

CWF...WL LV GALE WARN IN PLACE AS GRAD WILL INCR TWD DAWN AND LAST
MOST OF THE DAY. ALSO CONVECTION WILL BE HEADING FOR THE CSTL WTRS
WITH GUSTY WNDS.

.MHX...GALE WARNING CSTL WTRS AND SNDS.
GATES

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-141700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
MORE UNSTABLE. STRONG WINDS BOTH IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRESENT OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNBING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER SITUATION.