Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 PM EST SAT NOV 25 2000

TNT...INTERESTING FCST. RITE NOW WE HAV THE CSTL TROF SLOLY MAKING
PROGRESS INLAND. IT WILL CONT TO MOV INLAND FOR THE REST OF THIS AFT
AND EVE AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LWR 60S AS IT PASSES AND WNDS
TURN SE. OVR GA THERE IS A WK LOW THAT IS DVLPNG AT THE TAIL END OF
THE CSTL TROF AND SHLD CONT TO SLOLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVS NEWD UP
THE CSTL TROF OVN. 18Z PRES FALLS ARE INDICATING THIS FEATURE MAY
END UP BEING A LITTLE STRNGR THAN MDLS INDICATE. THE 18Z VWP'S FRM
ARND THE REG ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ETA'S FCST OF 35 TO 45 KT OF
ONSHR WNDS IN THE LO LVLS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS I THINK PRECIP
INTENSITY IS GOING TO PICK UP ACRS THE AREA LTR THIS AFT/EVE. RITE
NOW RADARS SHOW A GD DEAL OF RAIN WITH NEWD TRAJS AND IT WILL REMAIN
WET FOR THE REST OF THIS AFT INTO TNT AS MORE BATCHES OF UVM FRM
SHRTWV ENERGY TO THE W HEAD THIS WAY. THE KEY TO SOME HEAVIER
DNPOURS WILL BE THE CSTL FNT AND TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVR ERN NC.
THINK SFC LOW WILL COME UP JUST E OF I-95 AND PUT ALL OF MHX CWA IN
WARM/HUMID AIR WITH TEMPS/DWPTS IN THE LWR 60S. WITH LO LVL FORCING
VRY STRNG AND THE WND FIELDS FAVORABLE FOR ACTION OFF THE OCEAN...WE
SHLD GET SOME HVY DNPOURS ARND THIS EVE WITH THE CHC FOR A FEW LO
TOPPED TSTMS. BEST CHC FOR THIS ACTION WILL LIKELY BE AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CST. RITE NOW IT APPEARS WDSPRD TSTMS OR SVR WX NOT TOO
LIKELY AS CAPES ARE NOT HI ENUF. HOWEVER...ANY LO TOPPED CELL
HEADING INLAND QUICKLY FRM THE WTR WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS
HELICITY VALUES WILL BE VRY HI. ALL IN ALL...CAT POPS OVN WITH RAIN
AND PSBL TSTMS WITH TEMPS STDY OR SLOLY RISING. IT WILL ALSO BE
QUITE WINDY AT THE BCHS. THE RAIN WILL END LATE AS WE FINALLY LOSE
UVM FOR SHRTWV ENERGY AND LO LVL WNDS GO MORE OFFSHR. SUNDAY...THE
FLAVOR OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY START WITH CLDS. THEN MEAN RH CONTS TO
LWR AND W/SW LO LVL FLOW WILL HELP TO EAT AT THE CLDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WILL CALL IT SOME MORN CLDS THEN BECMG P/C. ATMOS HAS A
DECENT CHC TO BE QUITE WARM...ESP IF WE SEE SOME SUNSHINE AS 85H
TEMPS VRY WARM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUID WITH 65-70 MANY AREAS AS
THIS LUKS REALISTIC ANYWAY. SUN NGT/MON...LUKS LIKE A P/CISH TYPE
SCENARIO APPEARS OK. ANTHR VORT ROTATES THRU THE REG SUN NGT INTO
MON MORN WITH SOME CLDS.

CWF...HAV COORD WITH AKQ ON THIS ONE AND AS USUAL THE FCST IS TRICKY
FOR NC WTRS. ALL KINDS OF THINGS TO CONSIDER BUT HAV DECIDED ON A
GALE WARM FRM OCRACOKE NWD. IN REALITY THE ETA IS VERIFYING BTR FOR
NC WTRS AS IT HAS BEEN HOWLING DOWN AT FPSN...AND ETA WAS MUCH
CLOSER TO REAL WND SPDS THAN AVN. AS SFC LOW TRACKS THRU NC OVN IT
WILL BE IN A DEEPENING MODE. WITH THIS IN MIND AND THE FACT THAT THE
LO LVL JET IS SO STRNG IT SHLD HELP TO GET THE WNDS DOWN CLOSE TO
THE SFC DESPITE CHILLY WTR. BASED ON FPSN7 OBS WILL BUMP SEAS TO 12
FT OR SO SRN WTRS AND BLD THEM TO 11-12 FT UP N LTR. CAN EASILY SEE
DSLN7 AT 35 TO 45 KT LTR WITH 12-15 FT SEAS. EITHER WAY YOU PUT
IT...A STRNG SMALL CRAFT OR A LOW GALE...IT IS NOT A NGT TO BE ON
THE OCEAN!!!

.MHX...GALE WARN FRM OCRACOKE INLET N.
       SCA OCRACOKE INLET S AND SNDS.
GATES