Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
212 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2000

THE MODELS ALL POINT TO A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
AND TSTMS DEVELOPING AS A SHRTWV DIGS THE UPPER TROF OVER OUR AREA
AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON HEATING THINGS UP...WE WILL HAVE HIGH CAPE VALUES IN THE
1500-2000 RANGE. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OVER THE AREA...GIVEN UPPER
DYNAMICS APPROACHING THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND
HAIL. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL ISSUE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRI...WITH THE NGM TAKING THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT OFFSHORE FASTER THAN THE ETA/AVN. WILL FAVOR THE
ETA/AVN SOLN...AND HEDGE TOWARDS THE HIGHER AVN POPS. THINGS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE DRYING OUT FRI NIGHT...BUT MAY LEAVE A 20 POP IN
FOR EARLY FRI NIGHT ALONG THE SRN COAST AND OUTER BANKS. LOW CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON FOR A WHILE FRI NIGHT...SO WILL CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE RH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON SAT...HOWEVER WITH THE TROF OVER
THE AREA THERE WILL BE COLD AIR ALOFT (-10 TO 11 DEG C AT 500 MB).
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DESTABILIZATION AND CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A RESULT...SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POP IN FCST.

GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS WILL
BE A BIT COOLER ON FRI...WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MID 80S NW AREAS...TO UPPER 80S SE...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG
THE OUTER BANKS. MID TO UPPER 60S LOOKS GOOD FRI NIGHT...AND WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN MID 80S ON SAT BEHIND FRONT.

IN THE EXTENDED...DEBBY IS GONE!  ALTHOUGH HER REMNANTS LINGER
ON...IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL AFFECT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THINK
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD DAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY STILL CARRY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MON AND TUE. WITH THE STRONG RIDGE HOLDING TO OUR WEST...AND
WEAK TROFFING IN THE EAST.

CWF: 5 FOOT SWELLS STILL BEING REPORTED AT FPSN7 AND DSLN7. WOULD
EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AS THE ENTITY THAT WAS DEBBY CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA.

.MHX...NONE.

BANDY/COLLINS

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-250300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
THIS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED PERSONS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS
MEDIA FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RSB