Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 AM CST MON JAN 3 2000

ANOTHER INTERESTING FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
NEAR DFW WITH WARM FRONT ALONG MO-AR BORDER AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT IN THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL. OF COURSE...IN JANUARY...THIS MEANS
TROUBLE. PLENTY OF VERTICAL SHEAR...FORECAST CAPES AROUND
1000...LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO MO AND IL BY EVENING. AGREE WITH SPC MODERATE RISK
FOR TODAY. COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING...BUT BEST POTENTIAL WITH POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CWA. WILL WORD AS POSSIBLY SEVERE IN ALL ZONES FIRST
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT ONLY HAD A FEW COUNTIES IN NE
AR GET HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT...SO WILL FOREGO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS IN BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORIES THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS HAVE FRONT NEAR MS RIVER BY 04/00Z...AND EXPECT SQUALL
LINE TO BE WELL AHEAD OF THIS. WILL MENTION EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS...BUT WILL FOREGO SEVERE WORDING
FOR NOW IN SECOND PERIOD. MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN THE DRY
SLOT...BUT COLD ADVECTION AND WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS SHOULD
MAKE TUESDAY CLOUDY...COLD AND UNCOMFORTABLE. NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CLEARING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE ROUGH ALSO. MANY AREAS ALREADY
WITHIN 5-8 DEGREES OF MAX TEMP RECORDS. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION ON WHETHER TO FORECAST RECORD HIGHS. DON'T SEE MANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSHINE WILL BE
ENOUGH. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON POSITION OF FRONT. COLD AIR WILL BE LAGGING FRONT SOMEWHAT.
CALENDAR DAY HIGHS FOR TUESDAY LIKELY TO BE AT 04/06Z. WILL GO
CLOSE TO 3 HOURLY FWC GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR LOWS...WITH ONLY A
FEW DEGREES RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...IF THAT. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLDEST OF THIS SHOT.

EXTENDED...AS MENTI.ONED ABOVE...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON
THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN BY EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL
HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION LIQUID. 10

.MEM...NONE

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-030-031-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>054-088>092-031800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 AM CST MON JAN 3 2000

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE...INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WEST TENNESSEE...SOUTH OF
A DYERSBURG...TO JACKSON...TO LEXINGTON LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITIES OF DYERSBURG...JACKSON...MEMPHIS...OXFORD AND TUPELO.

OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THE REMAINDER OF WEST
TENNESSEE...EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL HAVE A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF JONESBORO AND
BLYTHEVILLE.

EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG
THE OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH TEXAS DURING THE MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL
APPROACH EAST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING...AND MOVE INTO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.