Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
240 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2000

WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG FRONT BETWEEN MEM AND TUP AT
08Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY GONE NORTHEAST AT MEM WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS PRETTY CLOSE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT AFFECTS THE MEM CWA.
ALREADY GETTING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA
AND SRN MS...JUST A QUESTION OF TIME TIL IT REACHES THE CWA.
THIS INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT PROCESSES ALREADY IN ACTION.
THUS...INCREASING CLOUDS LOOKS GOOD FOR TODAY...WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO FROM 30 POPS FAR NORTH
SECTIONS TO LIKELY FAR SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT AS
SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSE CWA. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IN
WARM SECTOR...AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE IN SECOND
PERIOD FOR NRN MS COUNTIES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIP CUTS OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WRAP AROUND STILL A PROBLEM. SEE LITTLE
IF ANY CLEARING UNTIL LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
QPF FORECASTS INDICATE WE SHOULD STAY BELOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ACROSS
NRN MS. DO NOT EXPECT FROZEN PRECIP ON BACK EDGE OF RAIN
SHIELD. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SNOW.

TEMPS...SPEED OF ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD WILL DETERMINE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY. THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SHIELD THE LAST FEW
HOURS LEADS ME TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE...BUT RESERVE THE RIGHT TO
MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES. SECOND PERIOD MINS/THIRD PERIOD
MAXES LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND 11/12Z. WILL GIVE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WIGGLE ROOM...BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH RECOVERY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. WILL BRING TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO
FREEZING. WITH WINDS STAYING UP...AND WET GROUND...FWC
GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW. 10

.MEM...NONE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>054-088>092-110000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1030 AM CST FRI MAR 10 2000

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE...INCLUDING WEST
TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...AND PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS TO HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE. THIS INCLUDES
THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS AND JACKSON TENNESSEE AND CLARKSDALE...
OXFORD...AND TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM NASHVILLE SOUTHWEST TO TUPELO AND
GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI AND ON TO DALLAS TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE MOIST...
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AS WELL AS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE TIME OF GREATEST CONCERN IS AFTER 3 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...TV AND CABLE
TELEVISI^ON OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.