Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CST WED NOV 8 2000

TORNADO WATCH 787 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF AN E-
W LINE FROM CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO. WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM CSV-TUP-GWO
AT 21Z. SFC FRONT MOVING SLOLY TO THE NW. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WERE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHEAR WAS
GREATLY ENHANCED IN THE REGION OF THE WARM FRONT.

UPR LOW MOVING ACRS WRN TX WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ACRS THE MID SOUTH.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG UVV AND A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
ACRS THE MID SOUTH. DEVELOPING SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVR S LA AT 21Z.
UPR LOW WL BECOME NEGATIVELY TITLED AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
SFC LOW WL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTH ALONG AND NEAR THE MS RIVER
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WARM SECTOR TO COVER MUCH OF N MS AND PROBABLY MOVE
INTO W TN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WL LIKELY RISE ACRS W TN...ESPECIALLY IN
MKL AN SURROUNDING REGIONS BEFORE DROPPING BACK LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
FRONT TO SWEEP ACRS THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPS WL BE TRICK ACRS ERN PARTS OF THE CWFA AS FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 12Z. A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY ON THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACRS ERN AREAS THEN CLOUDY AND COOLER. VERY COOL AIR SET
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THU AFTN.

LOW CLOUDS WL HANG AREA THU EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACRS MKL AREA...
BEFORE CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NGM VERY COLD ON THU NIGHT WITH
NUMBER DEEP INTO THE 30S. THIS SEEMS COLD BUT TEMPS THIS AFTN WERE IN
THE UPPER 20S IN PARTS OF KS. SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS ON FRI.
EXTENDED LOOKS DRY ATTM WITH A COOLING TREND BY MON.

.MEG...NONE.
SJM

N

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-090000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CST WED NOV 8 2000

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE...INCLUDING WEST
TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CORINTH...TO OXFORD...TO CLARKSDALE...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF TUPELO.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...INCLUDING WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...EAST ARKANSAS...AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH AND WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE.

LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT WIND
DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THE PROLONGED DRY SPELL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME DRAINAGE PROBLEMS IN LOW-LYING AREAS...
AND CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.

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