Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
405 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2000

FAST NORTHWEST UPR FLOW ACRS THE MID SOUTH THIS FORECAST PD.
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD MCS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE NE SXNS OF W TN AND
INTO MID TN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WL MOV INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY THIS AFTN. ATMOSPHERE WL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACRS W TN AND
NE AR THIS AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES > 1500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES OF -5C. GOOD VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT VERY
ABUNDANT BUT 302-306K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTED ACRS AR AND INTO W TN BELOW 850MB. GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE...
DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WL BE ANY MORE THAN SCT (30%) ACRS W TN AND NE
AR AND EVEN LESS ACRS N MS. WL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX FOR
NE AR AND W TN. FWC TEMPS LOOK GOOD. BEST CHC YET FOR 90 DEGREES IN
MEMPHIS.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC FNT WL BE LOCATED FM CNTRL MO ALONG THE OH RIVER.
MODELS ALL HINTING TOWARD A MCS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FNT AND THEN
MOVING SE INTO TN. NGM SEEMS TO LOOK THE MOST REALISTIC WITH PRECIP
MOVING INTO MID TN. WL KEEP SCT TSTMS GOING ACRS W TN AND NE AR
SINCE AFTN DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CARRY INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...
SOME OF THE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT MAY MOVE SE AND CLIP PARTS OF
W TN DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH READINGS AROUND
70.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ALL MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF FRONT. NGM SEEMS TO
FAST...AVN TOO SLOW...ETA JUST RIGHT. ETA SOLUTION WL PUSH THE
FRONT TO MEM OR SO WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO JBR-DYR DURING THE
AFTN. MODELS DO NOT HINT AT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ON WED BUT
WITH SFC FNT IN THE AREA WL ADD A SLIGHT CHC POP. TEMPS WL STILL HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE.

WED NIGHT...CWA MAY BE SPLIT WITH FNT E-W THROUGH MEM WITH DRY AIR
FROM MEM NORTH AND WARM..HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH. WL COOL OFF TEMPS A
BIT WED NIGHT FROM JBR-MKL WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.MEM...NONE.
SJM

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ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-232100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
440 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2000

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE...INCLUDING EAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND WEST TENNESSEE. THE AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FORREST CITY ARKANSAS THROUGH MEMPHIS TO SAVANNAH. SOME LARGER CITIES
INCLUDED IN THIS AREA ARE JONESBORO...DYERSBURG...PARIS AND JACKSON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HELP PRODUCE A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...TV AND CABLE
TELEVISION OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND INFORMATION.

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