Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PRELIMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
248 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2000

PROGRESSIVE WEAK SHRTWV TROF EVIDENT ACROSS NM ATTM MOVING E WHILE
HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WRN PLAINS STATES.
RETURN SE FLOW IN PLACE WITH PRESSURE FALLS W OF THE MTNS IN ADVANCE
OF STRONGER SHRTWV TROF IN GREAT BASIN. SE FLOW WITH MOIST AXIS/STEEP
85H-5H LR'S WILL FAVOR MTN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/MAINLY EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER STORMS COULD DRIFT INTO ADJACENT PLAINS WITH SW-W
STEERING FLOW. RUC SOUNDING AND SATELLITE DERIVED SOUNDING SUGGEST
CAPES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH WEAK VWS...SO MARGINAL SEVERE
POSSIBLE. PB REMAINS RATHER CAPPED AND WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING POPS. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF LLJ JET
TONIGHT AS MTN STORMS (MCS) COULD MOVE E AND FEED INTO LLJ/MOIST
AXIS. OF INTEREST ALSO IS SATURDAY/SUNDAY WHEN DRYLINE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. SATURDAY INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LR'S PRIME ATMOSPHERE FOR CONVECTION WITH AID OF STRONG AFTERNOON SFC
HEATING...LFC'S ARE HIGH THOUGH. ON SUNDAY DRYLINE SITUATION AGAIN
WITH MORE SHRTWV ENERGY. DRYLINE HAS STRONGER EWD PUSH SUNDAY PM
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE..MAINLY ERN 1/3 OF CWFA. BREEZY TO WINDY W
OF THE DRYLINE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH CUT OFF UPPER LOW TO THE W.

PRELIMS

MAF  61/90/58/86    -232
LSA  59/88/56/84    -233
E41  61/90/59/85    -233
MRF  84/51/87/47    3---
CNM  57/92/56/86    211-

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

GPM

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-282200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
122 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2000

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH.  ALTHOUGH HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE WEST OF A
HOBBS...TO MONAHANS...TO BAKERSFIELD LINE.  TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT AND
COULD EVEN AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE
TONIGHT.

LATE TONIGHT THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH...THUS THE
OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY WEST OF A SEAGRAVES...TO MIDLAND...TO RANKIN
LINE.

SPOCTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MATHEWS