Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CDT WED APR 26 2000

VIS SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS OLD FAITHFUL HAS REAWAKENED FROM ITS
WINTER/SPRING SLUMBER AS A CELL IS FIRING OFF THE DAVIS MTNS ATTM.
W/CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND H85-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM OR
BETTER THERE...EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS AND DIE
OUT W/DIURNAL COOLING...BUT TO RETURN THURSDAY IN GOOD ERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW.

NEXT CONCERNS ARE THE COLD FRONT MOVING S INTO CO.  DPROG/DT OF
MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE SINCE PREVIOUS RUN...W/ H85 40+KT LLJ TO
FORM OVER THE S PLAINS BY 6Z TONIGHT.  THIS WILL FEED DIRECTLY INTO
THE COLD FRONT...WHICH BY THEN IS FCST TO BE ALONG A LINE S OF KABQ-
KTCC-KDDC.  THIS WILL FEED THE MUCH ADVERTISED MCS THAT COULD
DEVELOP FURTHER N AND MOVE SE IN NWLY STEERING FLOW.  THIS IN TURN
COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD SET THINGS ROLLING
IN OUR NE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THU.  THU...W/FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE S...COULD SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WILL RESTRICT MENTION OF PRECIP TO THE ERN PORTION OF
CWA WHERE BETTER DEWPTS (50 F OR BETTER) ARE FORECAST.

NEXT SHOT COMES FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS AVN RUN IS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING
WEAK SHORTWAVES THRU THE RIDGE.  THESE SEEM A BIT MORE CONCRETE IN
THE FLOW THAN THE LAST FEW EPISODES...SO WILL LEAVE IN A MENTION
FOR ERN CWA THEN AS WELL.  BEYOND THAT...MRF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
NEXT SYSTEM IN SUN AND MON.  WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT CHANCES PRECIP
THEN...AS MRF IS FURTHEST S W/THIS SYSTEM AND TENDS TO OVER-AMPLIFY
W/TIME.

THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.

MAF  59/89/56/86    3211
LSA  56/86/53/83    3211
E41  60/90/57/87    3211
6R6  64/88/65/88    1211
MRF  51/83/52/83    22--
CNM  59/88/55/87    ----

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

44

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
640 PM CDT WED APR 26 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF AN ARTESIA TO VAN
HORN LINE.

DUE TO ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS COULD AT TIMES REACH SEVERE
LEVELS THIS EVENING...AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND
REGION.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PERMIAN BASIN AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO REACH SEVERE
LEVELS AT TIMES...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

PV