Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
948 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000

SEVERE EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA WITH NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE IN THE KBGS AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE HABOOB HAS
ENDED AT KMAF AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO ABOVE 5 MILES AFTER
FALLING TO NEAR 1/4 MILE IN BLDU EARLIER.  AM CONCERNED ABOUT MORE
CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE EASTERN CWFA SOUTH INTO THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS LATER TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL AND UPPER AIR DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250 MB JET WILL TRANSLATE OVER THIS
AREA LATER TONIGHT.  THE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN CWFA IS MESOED OUT
AT THE MOMENT.  SOME RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE AS PRESSURES ARE STARTING
TO FALL AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND AS WINDS BACK IN
RESPONSE...THIS WILL ADVECT HIGHER CAPE (2000-3000 J/KG) AIR BACK
INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.  WITH A VERITABLE PLETHORA OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SERVING AS CONVECTIVE FOCI...FEEL AT LEAST CHC
POPS ARE WARRANTED OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
TRAINING EXPECTED AND WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS PUSHING 3 INCHES IN
PLACES...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA.  ELSEWHERE...WE WILL DROP OFF POPS
AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL COMPENSATE
FOR WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS.  WILL TWEAK WINDS AROUND SOME AND WILL
LEAVE TEMPERATURES ALONE.  EXPECT UPDATED PRODUCTS TO COME OUT BY
1000 PM...70.

.MAF...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR BORDEN...SCURRY...HOWARD...
     MITCHELL...AND GLASSCOCK COUNTIES OF WEST TEXAS.
NM...NONE.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-260100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT.  THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS FOR THAT PART OF
WEST TEXAS EAST OF AN SEMINOLE TO ODESSA LINE...AND NORTH OF AN
ODESSA TO COLORADO CITY LINE.  FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR...MAINLY EAST OF AN ODESSA TO FORT STOCKTON
LINE.

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR MIDLAND...WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR POST.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
HAS MADE THE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN STRONGLY
UNSTABLE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BECOME
SEVERE QUICKLY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT TRACKS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

SOUTH OF I-20...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF AN ODESSA TO FORT
STOCKTON LINE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE STABLE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL BE REQUESTED OVER THE
MODERATE RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...
WITH SPOTTER ACTIVATION POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

70

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
535 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0534 PM    15 NW LAMESA              TX   1.5 INCH HAIL
05/25/00   DAWSON                         1.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED
                                          BETWEEN PUNKIN CENTER
                                          AND WELCH. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.