Severe Thunderstorm Warning 435, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
338 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2000

...NO END IN SIGHT FOR THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS...

BEEN A BUSY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH LINE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. SATELLITE AND KLZK RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN INDICATES THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO OUR
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO OUR
WEST OVER OK AND INTO WESTERN AR.

THE ETA HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND IT
WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION/S WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL EXPAND BACK
EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...I WILL HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF MY CWFA AND A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF MY CWFA FOR EARLY TONIGHT. I WILL ALSO
INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHER THAN BOTH THE FWC/FAN NUMBERS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO
BE VERY HOT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORDS. THE FWC/FAN/MAV
ARE STILL TOO COOL. CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE FORECAST RULE
OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
DANGER CATEGORY (I.E ABOVE 105 DEGREES). SO...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

SOME RECORDS FOR TODAY 9/1

LOCATION          RECORD      YEAR
--------          ------      ----
HARRISON           100       1947-1951
HOT SPRINGS        106       1947
NORTH LITTLE ROCK  106       1947
PINE BLUFF         105       1938

SOME RECORDS FOR SATURDAY 9/2

LOCATION          RECORD      YEAR
--------          ------      ----
HARRISON           101       1954
HOT SPRINGS        104       1947-1951
NORTH LITTLE ROCK  100       1925
PINE BLUFF         106       1925-1947

...EXTENDED.g..
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE PLAINS.

(49)

.LIT...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
    ZONES 16-21-22-25-30>34-37>47-52>57-62>69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 PM    CLEVELAND                 AR   50 MPH TSTM GUST
09/01/00   CONWAY                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0302 PM    ROYAL                     AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
09/01/00   GARLAND                        REPORTED BY HOT SPRINGS
                                          PD THROUGH ASP HOT.

0305 PM    DONALDSON                 AR   .88 INCH HAIL
09/01/00   HOTSPRING                      OCCURRED ALSO AT SOCIAL
                                          HILL. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

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ARZ003>005-012>014-021>024-030>032-037>044-052>056-062>064-066>069-
020200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
317 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE CREATING A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ERUPTED OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AT MID AFTERNOON. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL MAY NEED TO ACTIVATED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LITTLE ROCK...CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK (ALL IN LOWER CASE)

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LITLSRLIT ALL
TTAA00 KLIT DDHHMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0302 PM    ROYAL                     AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
09/01/00   GARLAND                        MODERATE ROOF DAMAGE AT
                                          ROYAL. REPORTED BY HOT
                                          ASP.

0320 PM    PEARCY                    AR   WIND DAMAGE
09/01/00   GARLAND                        TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          HOT ASP.

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