Severe Thunderstorm Warning 401, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2000

NOT A GREAT DEAL TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...AS FORECAST IS STATUS
QUO/PERSISTENCE FOR THE MOST PART. BIGGEST CONCERN NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE...AS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING THE PAST COUPLE
AFTERNOONS. THE REASON THESE STORMS ARE SO SIGNIFICANT TO MENTION IS
THE FACT THAT THEY ARE FORMING IN 100 DEGREE PLUS HEAT AND PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. H50 TEMPS UNDER THE RIDGE ARE RUNNING AROUND -6
TO -7...AS OPPOSED TO -4 UNDER THE RIDGE LAST WEEK. ALSO H70 TEMPS
RUNNING AROUND 8 AS OPPOSED TO 10 OR SO. WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE PW
VALUES BELOW 1.50 BEFORE TAKING A MENTION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE THE 20% POPS IN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT KEEP NEAR RECORD HEAT AWAY. EXPECT
PERSISTENCE MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH 100 TO 105 MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. MAY CREEP A LITTLE CLOSER TO 100 OVER MORE PORTIONS OF THE
OZARKS TODAY. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THU CENTRAL AND
SOUTH ZONES.

WILL AGAIN IGNORE THE BOGUS 3 TO 7 DEGREE COOL DOWN ADVERTISED DAY
TWO AND BEYOND BY THE AVN/NGM MOS GUIDANCE. PERSISTENCE THE BEST
BET.

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.LIT...HEAT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND SOUTH ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY.
       AR ZONES 022-031-032-039-043>047-055>057-063>0659-069
                021-030-037-038-040>042-052>054-062-066>068