Severe Thunderstorm Warning 375, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2000

LOOKS LIKE ONLY A FEW AREAS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS NOW FORMED
OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THINKING IS THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...THEN DIE
ONCE THE HEATING IS GONE. JUST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET.

BIG TEMP DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE FRONT. STILL IN THE 70S WHERE CLOUDS
HAVE HUNG ON IN THE NORTH...BUT 100 TO 105 HAS BEEN COMMON CENTRAL
AND SOUTH...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 110 TO 115. PRETTY MUCH THE
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES SO FAR THIS YEAR.

MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO LEAVE IN SMALL STORM CHANCES EVEN THOUGH
NGM MOS IS GIVING LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WILL ALSO LEAVE 20 PERCENT
IN FOR SUN AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. NGM
SUGGESTS MCS TYPE CONVECTION MAY MAKE IN AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH AR
SUN MORNING...BUT ET/AVN DO NOT SUPPORT THIS AND WILL NOT BITE QUITE
YET.

BACK TO THE HEAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ONCE
AGAIN. WITH LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED THE NEXT CCOUPLE DAYS...IT WILL NOT
TAKE LONG TO GET READINGS BACK UP TO NEAR 100 OR SO NEXT WEEK. WILL
GO AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE FMR NUMBERS FOR MON-WED.

.LIT...NONE.

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