Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2000

NOT MUCH TIME DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER...SO WILL MAKE BRIEF.

BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT
OVER NORTHWEST AR/EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW THE LINE TO
DRIFT EAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AR TONIGHT...SO WILL GO WELL
ABOVE NGM MOS POPS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEE SWODY1 FOR SEVERE WX DISCO.

FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL AR FRI...THEN STALL. WILL ALLOW THINGS
TO DRY OUT NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO COME
EAST FROM OK. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT IN OK...AND COME EAST DURING THE NIGHT. THINK THIS
WILL RESULT IN SCAT\TERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS...WELL ABOVE THE NGM MOS POPS.

SHOULD GET A BREAK BY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION.

45

.LIT...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>046-052>055-190300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1221 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST HALF OF
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDES THOSE AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE
THAT STRETCHES FROM GURDON TO SHERIDAN TO JUST NORTH OF BRINKLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL RUN INTO
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR THAT IT MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR PRODUCING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND SOME
LARGE HAIL.

EVERYONE IN THE AREA AFFECTED SHOULD REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
RULES AND EMERGENCY PLANS.

STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY
NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

49

ARZ003>006-012-013-021-022-030-037-038-040-041-182230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
326 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2000

...TORNADO WATCH FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERED NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE SEPARATES MOIST AIR OVER ARKANSAS
FROM DRIER AIR OVER OKLAHOMA. FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT
WAS APPROACHING ARKANSAS.

STORMS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

A FEW TORNADOES COULD AFFECT ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

PEOPLE IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE WATCH SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AuND LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND OTHER
CRITICAL WEATHER INFORMATION.

28