Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
420 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

WILL HAVE TO BRIEF DUE TO ON-GOING WEATHER. REFER TO SPC DISCOS FOR
LATEST SVR WEATHER ANALYSIS. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
AREA WIDE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTH AR AND
UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST FROM OK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAINS ARE A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH ZONES.

LOW PULLS AWAY SLOWLY MON...BUT WITH CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE...WILL NOT ALLOW THE SUN TO BREAK OUT AS PER SOME OF
THE NGM MOS OUTPUT. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO SHAVE 5-10 DEGREES OFF
MOS TEMPS MON IN MANY AREAS.

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.LIT...NONE.

ARZ037-040-232000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
114 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

...TORNADO WATCH FOR EXTREME WESTERN ARKANSAS UNTIL 7 PM...

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF EXTREME WESTERN
ARKANSAS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE WATCH COVERS THOSE LOCATIONS
WEST OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF OZARK TO NEAR
TEXARKANA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AT NOON IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA...THEN MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TV...AND CABLE TV FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-240900-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
130 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER TO THREATEN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND THIS FRONT
EXTENDED TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
TOWARD ARKANSAS. THE AIR OVER ARKANSAS IS WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THUS...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STATE.

OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...THE GREATEST THREATS OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AS THE SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA
TRACKS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL. THE STORMS IN ARKANSAS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BE ACTIVATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

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