Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Baltimore/Washington

Issued

May 13, 2000, 1:51 PM EDT (17:51 UTC)

Expired

May 13, 2000, 2:30 PM EDT

In force

39 min

Issued by

NWS Baltimore/Washington

Area

Whole counties

Counties Page County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

457 
WUUS51 KLWX 131752
SVRWBC
VAC139-171-131830-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON
151 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA
  SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 151 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW MARKET...
  OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARRISONBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   LEAKSVILLE AT 204 PM EDT
   HAMBURG AT 206 PM EDT
   LURAY AT 212 PM EDT
   FAIRVIEW AT 214 PM EDT

SEEK SAFETY INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...DO NOT
STAND UNDERNEATH TREES OR OTHER ISOLATED OBJECTS. DO NOT DRIVE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

AS THE STORM APPROACHES MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. TUNE INTO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

.END/ ARTHUR

&

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 13, 10:05 AM EDT, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1005 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2000

WK BKDOOR BNDRY RUNS FM N OF NHK TO DCA TO FDK AT 14Z. 06Z ETA AND RUC
MV THIS BNDY N OF THE AREA DURING THE AFT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SW
FLO AHD OF THE CDFNT.

OVRNGT CONVECTION MANAGED TO CLIP FAR WRN ALLEGANY CO MD THIS MRNG WITH
A REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL FM FROSTBURG. HWVR...THAT CNVCTN HAS WEAKENED
AND HAS MVD INTO PA. THE REMAINING OUTFLOW BNDRY TRAILING SWD INTO WV
WL MV E DURING THE AFTRN.

LAPS AND MAPS DATA INDICATES ATMS IS VERY UNSTABLE S OF THE BKDOOR FNT
WITH MORE STABLE AIR ACRS THE NE ZNS N OF THE BNDRY. AS THE BKDOOR FNT
MVS BACK TO THE N THIS AFTRN...THE NE ZNS SHUD DESTABILIZE. 06Z ETA IS
FCSTG CAPES OF 2000...LIS -6 TO -10...DWPTS IN THE 70S...AND MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTRN OVR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDTN...PCP WATER
IS WELL OVR 1 INCH. CAP IN PLACE THIS MRNG SHUD BREAK THIS AFTRN AS WE
HEAT UP. THE APPROACH OF THE CDFNT WL RESULT IN CNVCTN. CNVCTN WL
EITHER FIRE JUST AHD OF THE CDFNT OR ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY
HEADING EWD.  IN ADDTN...SOME CNVCTN MAY FIRE WELL AHD OF THESE 2
BNDRYS ALG THE WMFNT OVR THE NE ZNS BY MID AFTRN.

BIGGEST THREAT FM CNVCTN WL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS BEING THE 2ND BIGGEST THREAT. LACK OF ANY GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
SHUD CUT DOWN ON THE TORNADO THREAT.

CURRENT ZNS HANDLE SVR THREAT FINE. WL KEEP THE 50 POPS IN THE CHO AREA
BUT BUMP POPS UP TO 60 ELSEWHERE. 12Z IAD SOUNDING FCSTG MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPR 90S S OF THE BKDOOR FNT. THINK DVLPMT OF CLDS WL KEEP US FM
REACHING TEMPS THAT HI BUT WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP INTO THE LWR 90S E OF
THE MTNS. EXCEPTION TO THIS WL BE THE BWI AREA WHERE WE WL GO UPR 80S
DUE TO PRESENCE OF BKDOOR FNT.

WND FCST FOR TNGT REQUIRES THE USE OF BREEZY SO INSERTED THAT INTO
LATER PERIODS. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS TO 2ND OR 3RD PD.

ZNS BY 1030AM. SPS CONCERNING SVR WX THREAT BY 1100AM.

.LWX...NONE.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2000Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2000

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.