Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
240 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

TROF CONTS OVR NE PTN OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND. ONE VORT MAX
PASSES N OF THE AREA OVRNGT. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL PUSH INTO THE AREA
OVRNGT. AS THE VORT MAX LIFTS THRU NEW ENG...SFC FNT WL BECOME
SEPARATED FM ITS UPR LVL SUPPORT AND FNT WL SLOW DOWN OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE CWA ON THU. NEXT VORT DROPS THRU THE GTLKS THU NIGHT THEN PASSES
THRU THE AREA ON FRI. THIS SECOND AND FINAL VORT MAX WL SHOVE THE FNT
SE OF THE CWA THU NGT/FRI MORNING AND USHER IN A COOLER CANADIAN AIR
MASS.

FOR TONIGHT...BOW ECHO PROGRESSING AT ABOUT 285/50KTS TOWARD THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND IT...ADDTNL DVLPMT OCCURRING OVR OH VLY. WL KEEP
LIKLEY POPS ALL NIGHT ALL ZNS. THINK INITIAL BOW ECHO WILL PRODUCE SVR
WX WITH SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THE MAIN BOW ECHO FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. WL USE ENHANCE WORDING FOR THE EVE HOURS.

W/FNT LAGGING OVR THE ERN ZNS ON THU WILL KEEP A CHC POP FOR SHRA/TSRA
GOING BUT KEEP IT DRY OVR WRN AREAS WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THAT AREA. FNT FINALLY PUSHES SE OF THE AREA THU NIGHT SO
M/CLR THU NIGHT. COULD BE SOME CU/SC AROUND FRI AS VORT SWINGS THRU THE
AREA BUT M/SUNNY FCST SHUD WORK.

STUCK CLOSER TO THE AVN MOS FOR THIS FORECAST AS THE NGM MOS HAS BEEN
RUNNING WARM LATELY.

HEAT ADVY WILL DIE WITH THIS PACKAGE.

FCSTID = 15
DCA   73  90  70  85 /  70  30  10  20
BWI   70  90  67  86 /  70  30  10  10
MRB   68  90  63  85 /  60  20  10  10
IAD   68  90  63  85 /  60  20  10  10
CHO   70  90  67  86 /  70  30  10  10
HGR   68  90  63  85 /  60  20  10  10
NHK   70  90  67  86 3/  70  30  10  10

.LWX...
DC...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT.
MD...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT.
VA...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT.
WV...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT.