Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2000

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LWX CWA AT TIME... A
LITTLE STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EAST THAN THE WEST. UPPER
LOW STILL ROTATING JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST... AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL
TROUGH SHOULD KEEP STORMS FIRING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 12Z ETA/NGM
AND AVN ALL AGREE IN FILLING IN UPPER LOW A BIT... AND EJECTING IT OFF
TO THE ENE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.  FEEL THAT PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN
END BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR FOR THE FAR WEST... AND OVERNIGHT FOR CHO AND
DCA.  NGM/AVN STILL HAVE 700 MB TROUGH OVER THE COUNTIES ALONG THE BAY
AT 12Z TOMORROW... SO WILL ADD A CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS FROM
BWI TO NHK.

W/NW FLOW BUILDING IN FOR A WHILE TOMORROW SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT A
LITTLE BIT AT THE SURFACE... WHILE INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS PUT A CAP
TO ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON TUESDAY.
FWC/FAN GUIDANCE POPS RATHER LOW.. BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON... AT LEAST
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH THE
COLD FRONT.

FWC TEMPS WARM PRETTY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.. WHILE FAN
TEMPS A LITTLE LESS AGRESSIVE. WILL STICK CLOSER TO FAN TEMPS.

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

MARGRAF!