Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
230 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2000

00Z GUIDNC CONTINUES TO FCST HI INDEX ZONAL FLOW TO BE IN CONTROL OF
WEATHER FEATURES ACRS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PTTN IS FCST BY THE AVN OVR THE NE QUAD
INCLUDING THE MID-ATLC REGION DURING THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU THU FOLLOWED BY COOLING TO
AROUND NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRI AND SAT.

MEANWHILE WK CDFNT WILL SCOOT ACRS THE CWA ELY TDA DRIVEN BY FAIRLY
VIGOROUS H5 S/W. XPCT STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LVLS WITH WEAK CAA
AND SOME MIXING DOWN OF THE WND FIELD UNDER PS SKIES AND EXCELLENT NVA
IN WAKE OF S/W. FWC WNDS LESS THAN THE ERLR 20 TO 30 MPH FCST WHILE
THE AVN SFC WND FIELD SUGGESTS ERLR FCST ON TARGET SO NO CHANGE THERE.
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ON THE WESTERLY FLOW FOR
SAME REASONS ABV.

CLEAR TNGT UNDER WEAK HI. HOWEVER WED WILL BE PS AND COOLER THAN TDA
BUT STILL ABV NORMAL AS HI CLDS STREAK OUT TO THE E FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN THE WESTERLIES NOW MOVING INTO THE NW STATES. THIS OPEN WAVE
LOW WILL BE OVR IL IN 48 HRS GUIDNC TIME AND SCOOT BY OVR CNTRL PA
DURING THU WITH TRAILING CDFNT ON THE CST BY MIDDAY. LTL IF ANY PCP
XPCTD FROM THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM. STRONG CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS
FCST BY THE AVN WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL LVLS FRI AND SAT BUT
NOT BEFORE ANOTHER RELATIVE MILD JANUARY DAY ON THU.

THATS IT FOR NOW...LATER.

.LWX...SCA MD PORTION OF THE CHES BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

PAP