Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000

POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SETTING UP FOR THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NORTH OF KMAF
AND RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROW OF COUNTIES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...FROM TATUM TO JAYTON TO
NORTH OF WICHITA FALLS. DRYLINE EXTENDS BACK INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
BUT LAST HOURS OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS COMING AROUND TO WESTERLY
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. UPSLOPE FLOW...MODERATE INSTABILITLY AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS PROVIDED LIFT FOR STRONG
STORMS OCCURRING WEST OF FORT SUMNER ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY.

CONCERNED ABOUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER SOUTH PLAINS REGION.
THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES 4000-5000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX NEAR -8 DEGREES. SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
TO GET CONVECTION GOING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ADVANCING DRYLINE.
WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM PLAINVIEW
TO CHILDRESS AS STORMS COULD TRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT BOUNDARY. ROTATING STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS
(15-20 KNOTS AT 70H TO 30 KNOTS AT 50H) SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT. ANY STORMS WHICH COULD DEVIATE FROM THE MEAN
FLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THAT WOULD INCREASE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STORM
RELATIVE FLOW COULD BECOME TORNADIC WITH THE AIRMASS SO UNSTABLE.
SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM INTO AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
BY 06Z AND MESO ETA SHOWS 50 KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THIS
AREA BY THEN. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE OVER THE AREA
AFTER 09Z BUT WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING PRECIP FOR
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING BACK THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH BY
FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS BACK TO THE BENIGN PATTERN WE'VE HAD FOR
MOST OF MAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SIG WX NIL!

FRIONA       62/92/58/88  5100     TULIA        64/92/60/89  6100
CHILDRESS    67/95/64/91  7200     BROWNFIELD   62/96/59/90  3-00
LUBVBOCK      65/95/62/90  4100     ASPERMONT    71/96/66/92  4200

.LBB...NONE.

TINSLEY

TXZ021-022-252200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 355 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 900 PM
CDT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE:

PARMER     CASTRO

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.