Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2000

UPPER LOW PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY FILLING AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS OK
INTO MO BY 48 HOURS. PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. A LINE OF HIGH BASED CU WERE DEVELOPING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL ZONES. VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SOME SEVERE GENERALLY EAST OF THE CAPROCK. RAIN CHANCES WILL WILL
BE GREATER FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE CENTRAL AREAS
AND LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND ELEVATED CONVECTION THE CONCERN FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST.
GRADIENT WINDS WITH THE DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP WINDS UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. DO
NOT EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST 20-30 MPH
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. SOME DUST
WILL BE EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WEST TO THE TX/NM
BORDER THIS EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME SHOWERS...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL OF THE CWA BY
EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS...MAYBE SOME FOG...EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY BY MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED PROGS DEVIATE GREATLY BRINGING MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THIS
FORECAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN AND DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE.

    FRIONA 46/73/44/71 --00     TULIA 48/73 45/71  11-0
BROWNFIELD 50/79/48/76 --00   LUBBOCK 51/77 48/76  1100
 CHILDRESS 53/74/52/70 42-0 ASPERMONT 57/80/54/78  61-0

.LBB...WIND ADVISORY ZN021>044 TONIGHT.
MM

TXZ021>044-221900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CDT SAT APR 22 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TURKEY TO
MATADOR TO SPUR TO LAKE ALAN HENRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT.  AS STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS...THE DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
FARTHER WEST ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WILL CAUSE BLOWING DUST.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MID AFTERNOON...2 TO 4 PM...IN THE RISK AREA.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL HELP
CAUSE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HIGH WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
CAPROCK. THE STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CAPROCK SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION AFTER 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON.