Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
130 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2000

18Z COLD FRONT ARCS FROM SOUTH OF DALHART TO NEAR AMARILLO TO NORTH
OF GAGE. SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LUBBOCK WITH TRAILING DRYLINE.
WILL WATCH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS SOME HIGH BASED PRECIP FROM THE WEST. 1ST
PERIOD POPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS LOOK AT 4 PM. SHORT WAVE TROF
MOVES EAST TONIGHT LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELIEVE A SIGNIFICANT EML WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO ENOUGH INHIBITION TO PRECLUDE
INITIATION OF STORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMINARY:
FRIONA/TULIA       43/79/48/90 0000 CHILDRESS 53/78/54/93 1000
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK 48/84/53/93 0000 ASPERMONT 55/84/57/92 1000

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-152100-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK/GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CDT SAT APR 15 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
...EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EXISTS...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A MEMPHIS-GUTHRIE-ASPERMONT LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AS THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 45 MPH.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS OF 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE AN EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE REGION. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING AND
BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS DURING ANY ACTIVITY WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FIRE TO START. IN WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN A SMALL FIRE CAN
QUICKLY BECOME A LARGE...OUT OF CONTROL...WILDFIRE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

TAYLOR

TXZ025-026-031-032-036>038-042>044-160300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 168 FOR PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL 10 PM
TONIGHT.

COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AREA:
CHILDRESS...COTTLE...CROSBY...DICKENS...GARZA...HALL...
KENT...KING...MOTLEY...STONEWALL...

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV...OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE
FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TAYLOR