Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CST WED MAR 22 2000

UPDATED TO ADD ZONES FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPPER LOW NEAR TUCSON MAY BE SHOWING SLIGHT EASTWARD MOVEMENT PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT ENOUGH CONTINUITY TO TELL FOR SURE, BUT BELIEVE
THIS IS WHAT IS OCCURRING. SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THIS LOOKS OK. POTENTIAL FOR A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TONIGHT GIVEN PROGGED COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE AND ORIENTATION OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHICH MAY TRY
AND MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. DON'T THINK WE'LL GET INTO THE BONAFIDE WARM
SECTOR, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. GENERAL THREAT IN OUR AREA SHOULD
EVOLVE FROM SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY SOUTH), TO HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE
MOST FAVORED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH, OWING TO TERRAIN WHICH
SUPPORTS A THREAT OF "FLASH" FLOODING, AS WELL AS HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER. ALL AREAS FACE RISK OF LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND OTHERWISE FLOODPRONE AREAS. SYSTEM SHOULD PULL EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND EVEN RAIN, MAINLY NORTHEAST, ON THURSDAY. WITH
SYSTEM EJECTING RAPIDLY AND ON A NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT LIKELY TO BE ENTIRELY FLUSHED FROM AREAS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, ERGO, ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTHWEST PER MRF.

FRIONA/TULIA       42/57/39/71 9400  CHILDRESS 48/65/46/75 +620
BROWNFIELD/LUBBOCK 46/63/42/75 9300  ASPERMONT 54/69/49/77 +400

.LBB...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ZONES 23>26-29>32-35>38-41>44

TXZ021>044-222200-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
135 PM CST WED MAR 22 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ENTIRE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A HOBBS TO PLAINVIEW TO
SILVERTON LINE.

AT 1 PM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO
TO WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE BIG BEND MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERRIDE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS TONIGHT AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLILING PLAINS.

TINSLEY