Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 AM CST WED MAR 22 2000

VERY BUSY THIS AM WITH TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT AND SVR TSRA IN
PORTIONS OF CWA. MAIN CONCERNS TDY ARE SVR WX THIS MORNING AND AFTN
TRANSLATING TO A HVY RAIN EVENT LTR TDY. 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS ABOUT DELAYING THE EJECTION OF THE
PESKY H5 CYCLONE OVR AZ. GOES-10 WTR VPR CLEARLY INDICATES THE VORT
MAX THAT WILL ULTIMATELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT THE CYCLONE.
UNTIL THEN UNSETTLED WX WILL CONT. STRONG SFC TO H8 MOISTURE ADV
ALONG THE SFC BNDRY WILL KEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT PROCESSES ONGOING.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...INCR BROAD UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE...STRONG H7 UVVS AND
FAVORABLE JET STREAM POSITIONING WILL ALL COUPLE TO PRODUCE HVY RAIN
FOR THE REGION THROUGH TNGT. HPC QPF BULLEYES 1-2 INCHES THROUGH 12Z
THURS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA WHICH THIS SEEMS VRY REASONABLE. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESP WHERE ECHO TRAINING
OCCURS. I HAVE PONDERED WHETHER TO ISSUE A FFA BUT GIVEN PREVAILING
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS...WIDESPREAD LONG TERM FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM. WILL LET LCL STMNTS AND WARNINGS CVR IF NECESSARY BUT WILL
CONT MENTION OF HVY RAIN IN THE ZFP. SPC STILL HAS ALL OF THE AREA
IN SLGT RISK. DRYLINE AND BNDRY TO REGENERATE AGAIN BY AFTN...SEE
SWODY2 FOR MORE DETAILS. WILL CONT MENTION OF SVR AT LEAST IN S
COUNTIES BUT WILL MK FINAL DECISION AS I TYPE. GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF CLOSED LOW WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT FOR THURS SINCE CLEARING WILL
BE DELAYED INTO THURS NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE
EXTENDED XCPT FOR A FEW CHANGES TO CLD CVR ON FRI AS WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS EXPECTED AS SFC CYCLONE PULL AWAY.

THANKS TO WFO MAF AND WGRFC FOR COORDINATION.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
FRIONA       48/41/55/40 +986       LUBBOCK      54/45/65/45 +986
TULIA        49/42/56/41 +986       BROWNFIELD   56/45/65/44 +986
CHILDRESS    52/45/64/46 8986       ASPERMONT    62/54/68/50 8986

.LBB...NONE.

TAYLOR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK, TX
932 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2000

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

415 PM     LUBBOCK                   TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
03/21/00   LUBBOCK                        4TH AND FRANKFORD

500 PM     LUBBOCK                   TX   .88 INCH HAIL
03/21/00   LUBBOCK                        QUAKER AND SOUTH LOOP 289

500 PM     LUBBOCK                   TX   .88 INCH HAIL
03/21/00   LUBBOCK                        85TH AND KNOXVILLE

502 PM     LUBBOCK                   TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/21/00   LUBBOCK                        NWS OFFICE

510 PM     LUBBOCK                   TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
03/21/00   LUBBOCK                        34TH AND UNIVERSITY

535 PM     LUBBOCK                   TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/21/00   LUBBOCK                        SOUTH UNIVERSITY AND 89TH

TXZ021>044-220900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
133 AM CST WED MAR 22 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 106 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF WEST TEXAS...

YOAKUM     TERRY     LYNN     GARZA     KENT

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 107 HAS REPLACED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...

LYNN     GARZA

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.