Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
222 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2000

MOISTURE DEFINITELY IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER AZ SLINGING BITS OF ENERGY AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY COMES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT. MANY INGREDIENTS /STEEP
LAPSE RATES...LIFTED INDICES...SHOWALTER...CONVERGENCE...CAPE...JET
DYNAMICS...OMEGA...ETC./ WILL COME TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING AT LEAST AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
WHOLE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GOOD
DYNAMICS CONTINUES...AS DO HIGH POPS ACROSS WHOLE FA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW DEPEND ON WHERE THE LOCATION OF
THE SHALLOW FRONT BECOMES SITUATED . WITH WET GROUND AND MINIMUM
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC FOR WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LOW STARTS ITS NORTHEAST MOVEMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MOST OF RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF FA AND
WINDY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.

EXTENDED...NEXT UPPER LOW WILL DIVE ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO AZ
SUNDAY. SCENARIO LOOK SIMILAR TO CURRENT SYSTEM. RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LIKELY AND HAVE OPTED FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALL
AREAS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
FRIONA       38/53/38/58  8982      LUBBOCK      52/60/44/67 9982
TULIA        44/53/41/60  8982      BROWNFIELD   50/63/43/69 8981
CHILDRESS    53/62/46/64  9993      ASPERMONT    54/66/51/69 9983

.LBB...NONE.

AC

TXZ021>044-212100-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1230 PM CST TUE MAR 21 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS. FOR TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

AT NOON...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TO NEAR CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. A DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TO WEST OF SAN ANGELO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING WEST TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE KICKS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL OVERRIDE THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SINCE THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

TINSLEY