Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
155 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE (SEE SWODY1).

MODELS HAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THUS EXPECT MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE
OVER EAST TEXAS TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED
BY THE MODELS. THUS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA ATTM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MOVE
THE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE EASTERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ON EXTENDED: AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL THUS CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS.

FRIONA     63/89/63/88  4232     TULIA     64/88/64/89   3232
CHILDRESS  69/89/70/91  3222     LUBBOCK   66/89/68/92   3232
BROWNFIELD 65/88/68/91  4232     ASPERMONT 70/87/70/90   4222

.LBB...NONE.

JV/08

TXZ021>044-111930-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NORTH OF A LINE THROUGH MORTON...LEVELLAND... LUBBOCK...
DICKENS...AND GUTHRIE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT A1ND HIGH INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. ISOLATED CASES
OF HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.