Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000

MODELS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT CONCERNING RAPID TRANSITION IN WX
CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. AT 18 UTC...SFC LOW LOCATED ACRS W-CNTRL
IL WITH WRM FNT EXTNDG SEWD ACRS CNTRL IN INTO NERN KY. AT SAME
TIME...WTR VPR IMAGERY INDICATES S/WV MOVG EWD NEAR IA/IL/MO BORDER.
GIVEN PRESENCE OF HOT UNSTABLE AMS (-8 TO -10 SFC BASED LI VALUES)
SOUTH OF WRM FNT...WOULD EXPECT CNVCTN TO FIRE LATE THIS AFTN ALG
WRM FNT TO OUR NORTH...AHD OF S/WV. THESE STORMS COULD GROW RPDLY
THEN SPREAD ESEWD TGNT ACRS SRN OH...NERN KY...AND EVENTUALLY WV. IT
WOULD APR THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD RMN JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AND FORECAST AREA (CWFA)...BUT COULD CLIP PARTS OF E-CNTRL
KY NORTH AND EAST OF LEX. OTHERWISE...STILL CANT RULE OUT WDLY SCT
TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG ACRS CWFA WITHIN UNSTBL AND ONLY WEAKLY
CAPPED AMS...ALTHO FORCING IS WEAK AT THIS TIME AS WELL.

MAIN THREAT FOR TSTMS APRS TO BE ALG TRAILING CD FNT LATER TNGT. AS
HGTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG BROADER TROF AXIS...CNVCTN SHOULD
FIRE ALG FNT...THEN SPREAD SEWD ACRS S-CNTRL IN LATER THIS EVNG AND
INTO CNTRL KY OVRNGT. FORCING/MSTR LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AT LEAST OVER S-CNTRL IN AND N-CNTRL AND
E-CNTRL KY. THESE STORMS MAY START SVR TO OUR NORTH BUT WL HAVE TO
SEE IF SVR THREAT WL EXTEND INTO OVRNGT PD IN CNTRL KY. STILL APRS
AS IF STORMS WL NOT REACH S-CNTRL KY TIL FRI MRNG WITH NO SVR WX
THERE.

ON FRI...MODELS SHOW CD FNT PROGRESSING THRU KY. STILL CLDS AND SCT
MRNG SHWRS EXPECTED ACRS NRN PART OF AREA AND THROUGHOUT DAY ACRS
S-CNTRL KY. LESS HUMID WX WL THEN FILTER INTO AREA BY FRI NGT
SETTING STAGE FOR PLEASANT DAY ON SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITY.

CURRENT FAN/FWC TEMPS APR ON TRACK AND HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR.

IN EXTENDED...LATEST AVN SHOWS MSTR INCRSG ON SUNDAY...BUT APRS TO
BE MID AND HI CLDS AT THIS TIME AND WL LEAVE THE DRY FCST FOR NOW.

.SDF...NONE
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INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-172100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1145 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...NORTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND ALL BUT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A HOT UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCAL WIND
DAMAGE...HAIL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ALONG A COLD FRONT. THESE MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. AT THIS TIME...SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
LEAST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BUE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

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