Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
410 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS MORNING ARE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FORECAST
AREA TODAY...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD
AND ACROSS FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS FA AND DAY
SHOULD START OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BUT AIR REMAINS UNSTABLE
AND WITH SUNSHINE AND

BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY WILL
LIKELY COME FROM MCS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN IOWA AT 07Z.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFER IN HANDLING SMALL
FEATURES. 00Z ETA/MESOETA SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON MCS OVER IOWA
WITH AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 700MB UPWARD MOTION MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KY. HOWEVER 06Z ETA
LOSES THE DIVERGENCE AND UPWARD MOTION BEFORE IT GETS TO KY.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND EVEN THROUGH IT IS MOVING INTO NARROW
BAND OF DRIER AIR AS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT WILL
REACH VERY MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA.
THICKNESSES THEN SHOULD CARRY SYSTEM INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KY DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE IT DISSIPATE QUICKLY.

NEITHER NGM NOR AVN POP GUIDANCE PICKS THIS UP AND WILL GO OVER
GUIDANCE. NGM ALSO TOO LOW FOR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS OHIO RIVER. WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST. AIR
REMAINS UNSTABLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND FRONT AND WILL KEEP MENTION
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH BUT WILL LIMIT IT TO JUST MORNING SHOWERS.
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY SECTIONS WILL LEAVE IN FOR ALL DAY.

TEMPS FOR TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE GET. SOUTHERN KY
SHOULD HAVE A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHEST TEMPS
THERE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED
NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SOUTH
AND WILL CUT TEMPS TO AROUND 90. GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY .

WITH GROUND SATURATED...HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT FLOODING PROBLEMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL MCS GETS
CLOSER TO SEE IF AND WHERE IT WILL IMPACT FORECAST AREA BEFORE
CONSIDERING ?FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SDF...
SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-091530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
547 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE.

VERY WARM...MUGGY AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.  THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL HELP TRIGGER MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFT3ERNOON.

SCHOLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
909 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0420 PM    NICHOLASVILLE             KY   WIND DAMAGE
08/08/00   JESSAMINE                      TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

0445 PM    DUNNVILLE                 KY   WIND DAMAGE
08/08/00   CASEY                          TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.