Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2000

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS KEEP DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALONG OUTFLOW. THIS AREA IS SLIPPING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH.

THUS MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY DROP. ALSO WILL HAVE TO
LOOK AT THUNDERSTORM LOCATION FOR TUESDAY.

LATEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS APPROACHING NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN OUR FA. IF
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST...
THEN MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES COULD RECEIVE RAIN BY MID
MORNING. WILL MENTION HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF FA FOR THIS MORNING THEN LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR IN MAINTAINING MORE OF A WEST TO EAST FLOW
WITH RIPPLES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. LOW LEVEL WIND
MAX MOVES THROUGH FLOW WITH VARYING STRENGTH JUST TO OUR NORTH. THUS
EXPECT MOST OF ENERGY TO BE FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT FOR
TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. TIME SECTIONS FROM ETA ALSO INDICATED
A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF FA.

THIS WILL KEEP CHANCE ACROSS NORTH TONIGHT WITH CHANGE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES STAY PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH NEAR 90 TO LOWER
90S FOR HIGHS AND 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOWS. EXPECT THIS TREND
TO CONTINUE AS FA REMAINS IN MUGGY AIR MASS INTO MID WEEK.

.SDF...NONE.
SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-072200-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1040 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

VERY WARM...MUGGY AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AS THEY RACE EAST INTO THIS FAVORABLE AIRMASS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...SOME WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

STUREY
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