Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
340 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2000

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PINPOINTING CHANCES OF CONVECTION OF NEXT
FEW DAYS...

CURRENT CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER LMK FA (FORECAST AREA) DEVELOPED
IN UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN INDIANA.
LATEST MSAS SFC DATA SHOWS GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER SRN IL AND E
CNTRL KY WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM WRN KY UP THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.

FEEL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF UPPER
LEVEL S/W OVER MAINLY SERN THIRD OF FA AND WILL WORD TONIGHT/S ZONE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. WET BULB ZERO HGHTS FROM ILN AND BNA 12Z
SOUNDINGS WERE BOTH ABV 10KFT SO ONLY ISOLD HAIL EXPECTED. LATEST
VAD WIND PROFILES FROM FORT KNOX NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY 20 TO
30 KNOT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM W/SW UP TO 10 KFT. HOWEVER...
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY OVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SUNSHINE THIS AFTN
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

THEN RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
SMALL POPS GOING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THIS AFTN/S STORMS LINGERING OVER THE AREA. MODELS KEEP QPF OVER
MUCH OF LMK FA THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST BUT HAVE TRIED TO NAIL DOWN
BEST CHANCE. SEEMS LIKE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON WED WITH
MODELS PUSHING ANOTHER S/W THROUGH TOP OF PLAINS RIDGE. THE NGM IS
THE STRONGEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND HENCE THE
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR WED. HAVE OPTED WITH THE WEAKER ETA AND AVN
SOLUTIONS AND GONE WITH 30 POPS.

OVERALL NGM MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE BASED OF FORECAST H85 TEMPS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER EXPECTED TEMPS ON WED WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

.SDF...NONE.

MARIEN

KYZ024-025-027>043-045>049-053>057-067-040200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
128 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT
MORNING SUNSHINE OVER NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAVE
CREATED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK...STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR LISTEN TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS
FROM THE MEDIA ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MARIEN